Daniel Dubois vs. Fabio Wardley: Big Fight Preview & Prediction
Their first fight was either highly entertaining or deeply uncomfortable. Your viewpoint is largely dependent on whether your mind is focused on the here and now. Or what will come further down the line. Eleven rounds that will undoubtedly take its toll on both the winner and loser. Will either fighter ever be the same again? What price will the two British heavyweights have to pay for the incredible spectacle that they served up in Manchester just five months ago? In a fighting sense, have they ruined each other?
It was a brutal, savage, gruelling affair. The kind of fight that you watched through your hands. A difficult watch. Uncomfortable viewing. But absolutely compelling. You just couldn’t take your eyes off it.
Daniel Dubois (23-3-0) relieved Fabio Wardley (20-1-1) of his WBO world heavyweight title. But even in a sensational comeback victory, Dubois will know how deep he had to go to leave the Co-op Arena a two-time heavyweight champion of the world.
The 29-year-old was down in the opening seconds, and again in the third round. Dubois had to soak up plenty of heavy artillery from Wardley before wearing down the former white-collar fighter. Even when his body was failing him, Wardley never stopped throwing. Never stopped trying to save his title. He’d done it numerous times previously. Even when Wardley was seemingly on the verge of defeat, you just had that feeling that he might do so again.
Dubois will know, or should know, that even when Wardley was fighting sheer exhaustion, he never went down. Dubois has said he will smash his way to victory in even more emphatic fashion. But will it really be that easy? Will overconfidence be his downfall at the O2 Arena on Saturday night? The 31-year-old former champion, despite the obvious and justifiable concerns about the severe damage he took in May, will not go over easily. If at all. Dubois will have to approach the rematch with at least some degree of caution. He probably won’t. But he should.
There are those widespread concerns about Wardley. While the mind is unbreakable, the body failed him in the first fight. Can it take as much again? Is five months really enough time to have allowed the body to heal up and recover? I have my doubts.
We have to remember Wardley has had to take extreme punishment in previous outings, even in victory. Recent fights with Frazer Clarke, Justis Huni, and Joseph Parker were desperately hard nights for him. The body can only take so much. Even in fights that he won, nothing came easy for a fighter who just refuses to buckle. Dubois can’t presume a repeat victory is a mere formality because it isn’t.
The jab was key in their first fight. As were the better boxing fundamentals. With no amateur background, Wardley has always been playing catch-up. Despite all his success, has he really caught up?
Wardley is promising adjustments. But fighters usually revert to type, especially in the heat of battle. The lack of those basic fundamentals will only make that far more likely.
The odds favour Dubois strongly. The reigning WBO champion is 1/4 to repeat his previous victory. But with a big puncher like Wardley, the 3-1 odds on offer for the former champion could be a worthwhile investment. Wardley isn’t without hope. Far from it.
A lot will depend on what Daniel Dubois shows up. We’ve seen him break before, and while he showed incredible heart and guts in May, there is always that feeling that on any given day, the alter ego is never too far away. A mental frailty. The panic button pressed when there is no need to do so. You never know quite what you are going to get. We do with Wardley.
But as we have seen with Joe Joyce, a fighter can only trade so long on the strength of their chin and their durability. Eventually it goes completely. Is Wardley now at that point?
I think for both fighters, patience will be key. A little dose of preparing for the later rounds, if we get there, of course. Wardley put so much into his punches in their first meeting. Preserving the gas tank a little more could be his key to victory. But that could equally take away his natural instincts. A difficult balancing act that could leave Wardley in the land of nowhere.
Dubois can’t be overconfident. One mistake could end his night in the blink of an eye. Dubois threw everything at Wardley in Manchester, and he still stayed on his feet. I’m not sure the quick victory Dubois is predicting will materialise. If it ends early, I suspect it will be Wardley who will be celebrating a revenge victory.
I think it could be another edge-of-your-seat thriller. It could just be an old-fashioned shootout with both fighters fully intent on blasting each other out. If so, that is likely to favour Wardley.
But you never quite know how a world heavyweight title fight between two big punches will go. Virtually any ending wouldn’t surprise me. But I do think the sensible pick is Dubois.
I do worry the turnaround is far too quick for Wardley. He took an insane amount of punishment last time around, and I’m not sure his body, or his face, will be able to absorb the same again. Dubois has to be sensible and not let his emotions get the better of him. If he does, I expect him to ride out any uncomfortable moments to grind down his brave challenger at some point before the championship rounds.
Photo Credit: Queensberry/Leigh Dawney
