Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner: Big Fight Preview & Prediction
Most Valuable Promotions head to Arlington, Texas on Sunday, with what they initially described in a press release as a supercard. That might have been a bit of a stretch, even before Ellie Scotney pulled out of her featherweight debut against Tiara Brown, but the main event at the top of the card offers plenty of intrigue.
Alycia Baumgardner (18-1) leaves the relative safety of her super-featherweight division to challenge the big-punching Elif Nur Turhan (14-0) for her IBF world lightweight title. The 32-year-old has been lacking a serious challenge since she had that heated rivalry with Mikaela Mayer in 2022. The move up to 135 has probably arrived a year or two later than it should have done. But better late than never.
Turhan won the IBF title with a stunning 5th-round stoppage victory over the Brazilian Beatriz Ferreira last year. But subsequent wins over Taylah Gentzen and Gabriela Tellez have dampened the hype around her. Turhan scraped over the line in her two successful defences rather than build on that stunning win over Ferreira. The 31-year-old Turkish fighter can certainly punch, but her boxing skills appear to be lacking somewhat.
Baumgardner has been treading water since her victory over Mayer four years ago. Routine defences against opposition that haven’t threatened her. Fights without jeopardy. After going undisputed at 130, the American really should have moved up to seek fresh challenges. There has been a certain amount of frustration with Baumgardner over the past few years. The rematch with Mayer never happened; as a result, plenty of money was left on the table. For whatever reason, Baumgardner was reluctant to run that rivalry back. It seemed the same with Caroline Dubois; staying at super-featherweight looked like an act of avoidance. However, there does seem to be a little movement on that front.
Finally, Baumgardner has decided to test herself in far deeper waters.
Caroline Dubois, who will fight the American Stephanie Han in a three-belt unification showdown in February, is a natural rival for Baumgardner. Heated words have been exchanged many times. If Dubois beats Han, and Baumgardner gets past Turhan, a much-anticipated undisputed fight between the pair could be the biggest fight to make on the female side of the sport in 2027. But Baumgardner has business to take care of first this weekend. She is strongly favoured to do exactly that.
If this fight was made straight after Turhan blasted out Ferreira, the betting odds would, I suspect, be a lot closer. Baumgardner is odds-on at around 1/6 to crown herself a two-division world champion. Turhan is the outsider at 9/2. Can I see a route to victory for the Turkish fighter? Yes, but only if Baumgardner offers her one. Which I can’t see happening.
The reigning IBF champion will be dangerous, but unless Baumgardner puts up a stationary target, the former undisputed 130-pound champion should have a few skills too many for Turhan. I do think the extra duration of three-minute rounds could help Turhan. Baumgardner has a little longer to navigate her way back to the corner if Turhan does manage to land her heavy artillery. If Turhan does land clean in the early part of any round, it will be interesting to see what happens. Power can often be that great equaliser.
But ultimately, I think the boxing limitations of the champion will probably be her downfall. I expect Baumgardner to ride out any uncomfortable moments to become a two-division world champion on points. That much-anticipated showdown with Caroline Dubois will then move a little closer. In many ways, Baumgardner and Dubois need each other.
Photo Credit: Most Valuable Promotions
