Christian Mbilli vs. Canelo Alvarez: Big Fight Preview
The temptation to carry on is often too hard to resist. That old saying that fighters know when their time is up, but they refuse to admit it to themselves, is far too often in play. Boxing history is littered with tales of legendary fighters suffering the embarrassment of humiliating defeats on the way out of the boxing revolving door. Sugar Ray Leonard, Muhammad Ali, and many others can’t let go. They eventually get it, but only after they get it from the hands of a much younger fighter.
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is walking that proverbial tightrope this weekend. The 36-year-old makes another ring walk against another young lion who is threatening, and is being tipped to add another defeat to the resume of a fighter who could very easily go down in history as the greatest fighter in Mexican boxing history. A bold claim. But not one without merit. Julio Cesar Chavez will have some say in that. Chavez was another great Mexican fighter who refused to bend the knee to father time. As a consequence, defeats to inferior opposition litter that latter part of his career.
Alvarez hasn’t been the fighter of old for a number of years. In truth, he is just looking old. The body is creaking a little bit more than it did in its prime. The gas tank now has to be preserved and treated with care. Alvarez is still a very good fighter. But he is now distinctly beatable. An ageing warrior who could be one fight away from an enforced retirement. An incredible 63-3-2 record will stand the test of time. Only elite fighters have so far beaten him. Floyd Mayweather, Dmitrii Bivol, and Terence Crawford have all had their hand raised in victory. All three are at the very top of the boxing food chain. But this weekend in Riyadh, Christian Mbilli (29-0-1) is widely perceived as being in the right place at the right time. Mbilli isn’t an elite fighter. He is probably a long way short of that. But with so many predicting the demise of the great Mexican, it’s a clear sign of the times.
The bookies see their WBC world super-middleweight title fight a little differently. Alvarez is odds-on at around 4/11 to keep the show on the road. Mbilli can be found at 12/5 if you smell the upset. Many do.
The 31-year-old is coming off a split-draw against Lester Martinez. It was the first blemish on the Mbilli resume. A fast start. A not-so-good finish. Mbilli will need to pace himself far better against Canelo if he has any hopes of the upset victory. But is he really cute enough to beat someone with the pedigree of Canelo? Even this fast-fading version. The decline is in, but will he still have enough for the somewhat limited opponent he will face on Saturday night? As we have seen many times, power and youth aren’t always enough against Alvarez.
But age, injuries, and a long, hard career have taken their toll on Alvarez. He has been fading before our eyes, but other than that defeat against Crawford last September, Alvarez has kept winning over the last four years despite the naysayers predicting his immediate demise. He has adapted his style in later years. But against Crawford, it was nowhere near enough. After a year-long layoff, the rot could have got a whole lot deeper.
Mbilli definitely has a chance of beating the living legend. The 31-year-old isn’t without hope. He is aggressive and powerful. At an advanced age, Alvarez could find him too much to handle. But you sense that, with Alvarez, you have to win beyond doubt to get a decision victory. If there is doubt, it might not be enough. There lies his problem. Iffy scorecards are nothing new in a Canelo Alvarez fight.
Alvarez was once a great fighter, now he is now merely a good one. It could be about to get a whole lot worse. Before his fight with Crawford, nobody was seriously predicting Alvarez would lose. Now there is something very much in the air. The end is nigh; Christian Mbilli will hope it comes tomorrow night. It just might. But I’m not convinced it will.
Photo Credit: Mark Robinson/Getty
