Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Shannon Ryan vs. Nicola Hopewell

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Shannon Ryan vs. Nicola Hopewell

It might be a little way down the main card on Saturday night at the Civic Hall in Wolverhampton, but the fight between Shannon Ryan and Nicola Hopewell still offers plenty of intrigue and importance.

Ryan has the opportunity to build on her recent victory over domestic rival Chloe Watson. It was a somewhat anticlimactic ending, but in the four completed rounds, Ryan has perhaps never looked better.

Hopewell is coming off a split-decision victory over Marie Connan last July. A win that earned the Worksop fighter the IBO flyweight title. But if she hoped it would lead to more meaningful fights and titles, the last nine months have been a period of much frustration. But Hopewell has the opportunity to breathe new life into her career. A wish to fight on a Matchroom show has been granted. She hopes it’s not just a one-and-done deal.

It is an exceedingly difficult task for Hopewell. But by no means an impossible one. But the odds are seemingly stacked against her. Fighting the house fighter at her optimum weight and coming off a lengthy layoff gives her many obstacles to overcome. Ryan is the strong betting favourite for a reason. There is that feeling that she could be all wrong for Hopewell.

Virtually everything points to a Shannon Ryan victory. But there is some hope for the betting underdog. Ryan starts fast and then slows down. The key to victory for Hopewell is to stay with Ryan in the opening four rounds and then try to take over the fight down the stretch. Hopewell can’t give away the opening rounds. If she does, the fight will likely already be out of reach for her. You can’t let the house fighter put rounds in the bank. Hopewell, as she admits, is a slow starter. She will know any chance of the upset victory will hinge on getting out of the blocks faster than normal, without fighting with reckless abandon. If she is in the fight after five or six rounds, it could start to get interesting. If it is a test of stamina, Hopewell has a real chance of winning.

But Hopewell (8-1) will also have to reach a standard that we have yet to see in her professional career. There is that feeling that she doesn’t quite replicate her sparring form and makes her fights a little harder than they perhaps should be. There are little pockets in her fights where you can see that there is more to give. Although there have been elements of frustration along the way as well. It doesn’t always quite click for her. It can become a little mechanical at times. But to her credit, with the exception of her fight with Emma Dolan, she always finds a way to win. That is the sign of a good fighter. I suspect we will find out just how good Nicola Hopewell is on Saturday night. It is the night when it just has to come together.

Dolan is the pivotal common opponent. Both Ryan and Hopewell have only one defeat on their resume, to Dolan. Hopewell lost to Dolan in 2023 on points, and Ryan was dropped and also lost via a decision to the recent world title challenger. Of the two, I believe it is Ryan who has improved the most since losing their unbeaten records to Dolan. A change of camp has benefited her immensely. Ryan seems happier now. Her confidence is growing. She has hinted at problems leading up to her fight with Dolan two years ago. That most certainly isn’t the case now. In many ways, Ryan has moved on and up.

The loss to Dolan three years ago prompted Hopewell to drop down to flyweight. A weight division that is a much better fit for her frame. But Hopewell rolls the dice for this fight and steps back up to super-flyweight to challenge Ryan for the IBF Intercontinental and Commonwealth titles. It’s far from an ideal scenario for Hopewell. She will fight close to what she weighed in at. But Ryan will rehydrate and will be significantly heavier on fight night. But when you have been starved of opportunities since July, sometimes you have to take what offers come in. It’s a calculated gamble for Hopewell. But one that she couldn’t turn down. Make no mistake, a win changes everything for her. Despite certain disadvantages, Hopewell can’t be blamed for taking her chance in the away corner.

A Nicola Hopewell victory is by no means impossible. The 4-1 underdog would have to give a career-best performance to do so. The victory over Marie Connan last year was her best win to date. A wafer-thin split-decision. Connan was dropped in the 6th round, and that was the difference on the night. But Connan is several levels below Ryan. Hopewell will need to find more to beat Ryan. Probably a lot more.

Ryan has wins over Jasmina Zapotoczna and Chloe Watson on her record, and she has the better form line on paper. But she has been dropped a couple of times, and she can slow down the longer the fight goes on. Hopewell isn’t without hope and she could have a big second half of the fight. But she must make her opponent work extremely hard in the opening few rounds. Ryan has shown certain vulnerabilities when she is put under pressure. The bell arguably saved Ryan when Emma Dolan put her on the canvas early in their fight. Hopewell must take her out of her comfort zone. If she does, those pre-fight odds might look wide of the mark.

The opening few rounds will be key. If Ryan starts the way she did against Chloe Watson, Hopewell could be in big trouble. If Ryan can get to Watson so quickly, you would think she would do that to Hopewell as well. If Ryan does put those early rounds in the bank without too much stress or discomfort, Hopewell will find it incredibly difficult to claw back the deficit. But Hopewell can fight with a certain amount of freedom on Saturday night, and that might give way to the career-best performance she will undoubtedly need. If Ryan can be pushed back and made to work for any success, Hopewell could spring the upset.

But Hopewell hasn’t it all to do. The weight could be pivotal, and the lightning-fast start Ryan will surely bring could be a stylistic nightmare for her 34-year-old opponent. It could be one of those fights where we will know who will win pretty quickly. In simple terms, Hopewell must start quick. If she doesn’t, her chances of victory will be vastly reduced.

Ryan (10-1) is the 1/6 betting favourite, and with good reason. I just think she has a little too much of everything for her opponent. The 29-year-old is coming into her peak and is the fighter who is still improving, I feel. Hopewell will have to find something we haven’t yet seen. Sometimes the gut can take over, but making a prediction is nearly always based on what you know and what you have already seen. What we have seen so far in their respective careers points pretty definitively in one direction.

I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Ryan can force the stoppage either on cuts, or with the referee rescuing a brave Hopewell in the later rounds after taking a few shots too many. But far more likely is Ryan winning a wide but hard-earned decision after ten good rounds.

Photo Credit: Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing