McGregor vs Cerrone: The Odds
They say the bookies are rarely wrong, and normally they can give us a good indication of how a fight will go.
Conor McGregor is a pretty strong favourite to beat Donald Cerrone in his return this coming weekend at UFC 246. But getting value for money you will have to look a little deeper than just the straight odds on who will win the main event at the T-Mobile Arena.
McGregor is odds on to win the fight at 1-3, Cerrone is 2-1, which seems very poor value when he is viewed as almost certain to lose the fight by most, although I do not share the view. Cerrone has a much better chance of winning than he is being given credit for.
But you can find decent odds if you look when and how the fight will end.
McGregor hasn’t finished any fight in his entire career after the 2nd round, his only victories when a fight goes into the 3rd and beyond are his wins on points against Max Holloway and in the rematch with Nate Diaz.
The Irishman is 7-4 to win in the opening round and 9-2 in the 2nd, after that the odds dramatically increase to 10-1 in the 3rd and longer still if you still see McGregor winning by a late stoppage.
Interestingly John Kavanagh sees McGregor winning late, odds of 17-2 on points is the shortest price you can get if you see McGregor winning after the opening two rounds.
Many think Cerrone has more ways to win than McGregor, and I tend to agree. Cerrone, if he uses them, has the skills to make it an incredibly uncomfortable evening for McGregor.
Every fight McGregor has ever lost in his MMA career has been by way of submission, Cerrone has 17 wins by submission. Cerrone is 28-1 to win by that way in the 3rd, and 33-1 in the 4th.
We have seen McGregor break before when fatigue sets in, and we have most definitely seen Cerrone break opponents throughout his long career, could we see a similar scenario in Las Vegas.
McGregor as we have seen in the past, drastically slows down as the fight extends, and if the fight goes any sort of distance, those odds on Cerrone look incredibly tempting.
With the fight being at welterweight, this swings the fight more Cerrone’s way I feel.
We saw in both Diaz fights, McGregor didn’t look the same at the higher weight. The much talked about power seems to carry less of a threat, he’s more flat-footed and the gas tank empties at an alarming rate, certainly faster than it should for an elite athlete.
Cerrone shouldn’t be written off, if he uses his full arsenal at his disposal and survives the expected early onslaught, Cerrone could very well spring the upset. Inactivity, lifestyle and the weight could all work against McGregor.
For me, if you fancy McGregor to get his first victory since UFC 205, then the odds of 9-2 to win in the 2nd could be the way to go.
As for Cerrone, those 33-1 odds to win by submission in the 4th, look too good to resist. But if you do think Cerrone can win by stoppage, he is 3-1 to do so, again odds which reflect decent value.
It might be a little too simplistic, but I think it will either be McGregor early, or Cerrone late. A lot depends on what version of McGregor we see. If he is truly the reborn fighter we are led to believe, then he should get the win, but until he proves he really is back to somewhere near to what he was, the doubts will linger.
(Odds courtesy of SkyBet)