UFC 230: Kieran’s Top Tips
By Kieran Cobley
With UFC 230 taking place on Saturday at the historic Madison Square Garden, its time for me to give you my betting tips for the card.
This week I’m backing a treble, with my first selection being Jack Marshman to win in rounds one to three (essentially finish his opponent) against Karl Roberson.
Marshman is the underdog coming into this fight, with odds of 7/4 against Roberson’s 4/9, but I believe this is the night where Marshman could prove his doubters wrong.
The welsh fighter has finished 18 of his 22 wins, so he definitely has finishing ability, and he will also be looking to bounce back following a round one submission loss to Antoni Carlos Jr.
The odds of Marshman finishing the fight are 7/2 and makes sure we don’t have the same scenario as last week, when I backed Anthony Smith to win by KO, but he won via submission.
My next pick is for Israel Adesanya to win via KO/TKO, with the New Zealander taking on Derek Brunson.
Adesanya is a 1/3 favourite going in and his odds of winning via KO/TKO are at 10/11, and considering how good his striking pedigree is, I’m slightly taken a back by how close these odds or to evens.
There is good reason to back “The Stylebender” though, with the 29-year-old having a fantastic kickboxing record, an unorthodox striking style, and the fact Brunson got knocked out in his last fight against Jiu-Jitsu specialist Jacare Souza.
My final pick is for Chris Weidman to beat Ronaldo Souza inside the distance.
This one might seem a little strange, but Weidman has never lost against a Brazilian opponent, he has beaten Anderson Silva twice, and has displayed not only fantastic wrestling ability, but the ability to KO opponents or make them tap out.
The only niggling factor here though is how good “Jacare” is from the guard in grappling exchanges, with the Brazilian being a master at luring opponents into his guard to attack, before locking in a submission.
I think Weidman will be wise to this though, and just use his boxing skills to keep himself in control on the feet, before hitting Souza with a big shot to get the KO win, but just to cover it off, Ill back him to finish the fight without designating by which method.
Weidman to finish the fight has odds of 15/8 and to back the American outright, he is priced as an 8/15 favourite.
So my picks are:
Marshman to win in rounds 1-3 7/2
Adesanya by KO/TKO 10/11
Weidman to win in rounds 1-3 15/8
A £20 treble on these picks has odds of 23.7/1 and will bring in £493.98 including stake.
So, who’s your money on for UFC 230? Let me know on Twitter by tweeting me @Cobleyreporting.
*All odds are from Sky Bet and were correct at time of writing.