Mary Spencer vs. Mikaela Mayer: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Mary Spencer vs. Mikaela Mayer: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

In Montreal on Thursday, Mary Spencer defends her WBA world super-welterweight title in her most high-profile fight yet against the two-division world champion Mikaela Mayer. An already intriguing showdown was added a little more tinsel when the vacant WBC and WBO baubles were also added to the equation. The winner will be one fight away from going undisputed at 154. A big unification fight, albeit one that is severely going under the radar, has big implications not just for the here and now, but also for what lies ahead down the road.

Mayer is still seeking an undisputed showdown at 147 with Lauren Price, and even Chantelle Cameron is in her sights in 2026. Spencer (10-2) has aspirations of facing an old amateur rival. Claressa Shields holds wins over the Canadian in the amateur ranks. Spencer believes Shields didn’t face the best version of Mary Spencer all those years ago. Revenge and redemption could fire Spencer to a famous win in Montreal. A fight that, in many ways, carries many levels of motivation. At 40, her boxing life could really begin.

After turning professional in 2021 after an amateur run that included being a three-time world amateur champion, Spencer won her first seven fights before losing unexpectedly to Femke Hermans in 2022, and after Hermans beat her again via a majority decision in the immediate rematch, Spencer must have thought her career had peaked. But three wins later, and the WBA title in her possession, everything has changed for her. It could get even better.

But Mikaela Mayer will be a formidable challenge for the reigning world super-welterweight champion. A former unified world super-featherweight champion and the current WBO welterweight champion, Mayer has a resume not many can match in the female ranks. Only Alycia Baumgardner and Natasha Jonas have beaten her. Two split-decision reversals that were controversial and hotly disputed. Arguably, Mayer should still be unbeaten.

Mayer (21-2) is coming off two big wins over Sandy Ryan. At 35, the American is at her peak. Mayer is a sizable betting favourite to win her third world title. But Spencer comes in with real ambition. She sees this fight as a gift. The naturally bigger fighter, Spencer, isn’t without hope. If she can use her size effectively, those long odds might look way off the mark. If Spencer can hurt Mayer in the early stages, make the American respect her power, then the upset could be on. Spencer believes Mayer gets hit too much, and size could really matter in Montreal. Mayer must not be reckless; the odds might say one thing, but she must also pay her opponent the respect she undoubtedly deserves. Equally, Mayer needs to avoid the somewhat slow start that cost her in those fights with Baumgardner and Jonas. If Spencer finds some early success, her chance of victory increases significantly.

But Mayer does seem to be on another level. She is the fighter who has operated at a much higher standard as a professional. Maïva Hamadouche, Baumgardner, Jonas, and Ryan, a resume that suffocates the professional career of Spencer. But the Canadian can not be written off. Spencer is the fighter with everything to gain, and with very little to lose. At 40, she might view it as her last opportunity to hit the mainstream. She might just rise to the occasion and inflict a third career defeat on the record of Mayer. If the WBO world welterweight champion struggles with the physicality of her bigger opponent, she will likely struggle to make her game plan effective enough to have her hand raised.

Mayer is a strong betting favourite at 1/7 to win her third world title. And that is the way I see it. Odds of just over 4-1 for Mayer to win inside the distance are tempting, but a distance fight looks more likely. Mayer is the high-volume fighter, and that could overwhelm the bigger fighter. Avoiding the slow start, picking her moments to engage, and implementing her greater punch variety should see Mayer head home with more jewellery around her waist. If fighting at the higher weight doesn’t diminish what she usually brings, a wide points victory for Mikaela Mayer is the most likely outcome.

Photo Credit: Vitor Munhoz/Eye Of The Tiger