Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Despite their extensive and almost impeccable records, there is a perception that neither fighter is or can be what they once were. But is that really an accurate assessment of what we will get served up on Saturday night?

For Canelo Alvarez, father time has been calling for quite some time. At 35, the miles on the clock are obvious. But he keeps winning, and with some ease. Yes, the stoppages have stopped coming, but the largely emphatic victories haven’t. The advancing years have probably made him a smarter fighter. The decline is coming. In truth, it is already visible, but against admittedly carefully selected opposition, no fighter of late has been good enough to fully exploit the declining skills and ageing body.

Alvarez will defend his undisputed world super-middleweight titles against the unbeaten Terence Crawford in Las Vegas on Saturday night. Crawford at 37 is older, but almost certainly the fresher fighter. But he is also smaller, just maybe the only detail that will matter once the long, tiresome Fight Week obligations have run their course, and the first bell finally chimes.

Crawford (41-0), already a four-division world champion, will attempt to add a world title in a fifth weight class to his so far untouched resume. A win over Alvarez will make Crawford undisputed in a third weight division, and with it, the final acceptance of being known as one of the greatest fighters of his generation.

Alvarez (63-2-2) is the favourite, although the odds are probably a little closer than some might think. The Mexican is 4/7 to win, but the American, the underdog at 7/5, should probably be a little wider in the betting stakes.

It is the first significant entry into boxing for Dana White, albeit one bankrolled by Riyadh Season. White has woven his brand of magic and control over the UFC, and while he will undoubtedly find boxing a lot more problematic, Saturday night in Vegas and live to millions on Netflix isn’t a bad place to start. What comes next, nobody can say for certain. Boxing is far from perfect, but the future looks even more uncertain and concerning. Time will tell.

Crawford is coming off a hard-earned and unconvincing victory over Israil Madrimov last August when Crawford moved up in weight to win the WBA world light-middleweight title. There were concerns highlighted, specifically when Alvarez is next and in a weight division that is fourteen pounds heavier than the 154 limit of his fight with Madrimov. Crawford didn’t look like the dominant force he was at welterweight and below. It was a far cry from that scintillating performance the fight before against Errol Spence Jr. Madrimov is a good fighter, but he isn’t Canelo, and he lost to Vergil Ortiz Jr. on points in his only fight since his defeat to Crawford. It’s hardly the most encouraging form line. Maybe size does matter.

After a long career, Alvarez could be ready for the taking. A professional for nearly twenty years, the end is surely within sight. Crawford could be in the right place at the right time. But will his speed, which will surely be his key to victory, be dimmed by carrying the extra poundage? Adding extra muscle can often be at the expense elsewhere in a fighter’s arsenal.

It’s always difficult to pick against Alvarez in Las Vegas, and Crawford will need to leave no doubt in the judges’ eyes if the fight as seems likely goes to the cards. Alvarez has a ‘Hagler’ like chin, and there seems little chance that Crawford gets it done inside the distance. If Crawford is to win, he will almost certainly have to do it in points. Overcoming size disadvantages and that Las Vegas judging leaves Crawford with a significant challenge ahead of him.

Tactics will be key, and it’s difficult to know just how Crawford will approach the biggest test of his career. I can see Alvarez trying to use his size by constantly pressuring Crawford to force home his advantage. Will then Crawford meet him head-on, or try to box him on the back foot? However he fights, Crawford will have to do more than enough to fully convince the scoring officials. The likes of Gennadiy Golovkin and others have left Vegas complaining they hadn’t been given enough credit for their work when sharing a ring with Alvarez.

In a fight where there are many unknowns, it’s safer to go with what we know. Alvarez is the proven fighter at this weight, and it’s difficult to see how Crawford gets the job done. Can he really get a decision over Alvarez in Las Vegas? I have my doubts. If the rounds are close, the heavier shots of the bigger fighter are likely to sway the judges in favour of Alvarez.

I wouldn’t totally rule out a Crawford victory, but the evidence says the weight differential will be too much for him. I think it will be competitive, and Crawford will certainly win rounds. But as he always seems to do, with the few obvious exceptions, of course, Alvarez will do enough to have his hand raised after twelve absorbing rounds.

Photo Credit: Getty Images