Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois 2: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois 2: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois have fought before. Usyk stopped Dubois in nine rounds in 2022. Apart from a few pockets of success for the British heavyweight, Usyk was in full control. There was, of course, the 5th round low-blow controversy. Usyk was accused of milking it. But the Dubois inner circle have milked it for all it was worth ever since. You can’t blame them for that, but it does somewhat camouflage the reality of the situation and the one-sided nature of that first fight two years ago.

But this weekend, Dubois gets a second opportunity at Usyk. This time, with undisputed status, the reward for the winner. Dubois defends his IBF heavyweight bauble at Wembley Stadium on Saturday night. Usyk puts the WBC, WBA, and WBO titles on the line. Usyk is a strong betting favourite to win again. But the second time around, Dubois has a much better chance of beating him. In a fighting sense, as Team Usyk accepts, the first time around, Dubois was just a boy. Now, he isn’t. Dubois has matured in many ways since that losing effort to Usyk. Dubois lost for the second time in his career. He hasn’t lost since. At 27, he is at the peak of his physical powers, with his confidence at an all-time high. That most definitely wasn’t the case two years ago. As we know, timing is everything.

Usyk at 38 could be ready for the taking. The Ukrainian has had a quite extraordinary career. Undisputed in two weight divisions. An unbeaten twenty-three fight professional run. Even when fights are seemingly going against him, he always finds a way to win. An unbreakable will. A unique ability to change gears. But at some point, Usyk will be in the middle of a hard fight, and the body can’t do what it once did. It might only need the slightest of slippage to turn victory into a defeat. Those two desperately hard fights with Tyson Fury would have taken at least something of out that perceived declining prime of the Ukrainian. Dubois will hope it’s enough to swing the odds into his favour. Usyk might only need to slip by a small percentage from his recent performances, and Dubois could be the first British undisputed world heavyweight champion since the days of Lennox Lewis.

But Usyk didn’t look like a fighter who was fighting a losing battle against Father Time. More than arguably, those wins over Fury were the best of his fabulous career. The Ukrainian is still a formidable fighting machine.

Dubois is riding a quite ridiculous win streak. From the depths of that night against Usyk, Dubois has overcome the odds to defeat Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic, and that impressive demolition of Anthony Joshua on a night when much of his own country was against him. Dubois stopped all three and crucially overcame adversity in all three fights. Many boxes were ticked in all three of those fights. Dubois has matured and has found real self-belief. Two years ago in Poland, both of those things were missing.

Some will question the validity of those three important Dubois victories. Miller was hardly in prime condition. Hrgovic reportedly had problems with illness in his training camp, and Joshua couldn’t have fought a worse fight tactically if he tried. But Dubois was impressive in many different ways in those career-saving wins. I thought the win over Joshua was potentially a game-changer for him. Dubois did everything right on another night he was expected to lose.

A lot has been made about the upturn in the form of Daniel Dubois over his last three fights, and rightly so. But many forget the last five fights of Oleksandr Usyk. The two wins over both Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury, and the one over the fighter he will face once again on Saturday night in front of 90,000 fans. On recent form, there is surely only one winner.

But Dubois seems different this time. His whole demeanour is now one of belief. Dubois has gone from hoping he will beat Usyk to now believing that he will win. But Usyk will be a far more difficult fighter to beat than Miller, Hrgovic, and Joshua. A Dubois victory may hinge on Usyk getting old overnight. Usyk certainly is not of the thinking his time has passed. “Listen, I respect this guy (Dubois). This young guy is motivated. But I am, too. I’m not an old guy. 38 is not old. 

Dubois badly needs a good start. He will need to find real success in the opening four rounds. Usyk can start slow, and Dubois will need the sort of blistering start he got in the Joshua fight last September. The jab of Dubois will be key. It’s heavy and varied. If Dubois can get that jab working from the early seconds, his chances of victory will increase significantly. But single tentative jabs will not be enough. Dubois has undoubted power. He will surely need to utilise it to beat Oleksandr Usyk. It might be his only chance. Dubois can’t be reckless, but equally, he must repeatedly let his hands go with real conviction. Dubois certainly seems in the mood to do exactly that. “I know what I’ve gotta do. I’m a young lion, and I’ve just got to take over. You know, be the man and execute.”

But Usyk has more than proved he can absorb heavyweight power previously, and if Dubois can’t put a dent in him, can he really win a decision against the boxing wizard? I have my doubts. If Dubois can’t find that big moment, and Usyk gets into his groove, Dubois will surely have a long fruitless evening in London.

I’ve always thought the Dubois shortcomings have been more mental than physical. The first Usyk fight, at times, highlighted that perfectly. At times, he looked lost, and his concentration levels wavered multiple times. As good as Dubois has looked of late, Usyk has that suffocating pressure that will drain any fighter. The unified world heavyweight champion can smother his prey with that unrelenting style of his. Usyk gets stronger the longer the fight goes on. You sense Dubois needs to find success and plenty of it in the early stages.

I wouldn’t totally rule out a Daniel Dubois victory. Power can be a great equaliser. Dubois has that in abundance. Fury and Joshua had their moments against Usyk. Dubois could find a bigger moment. In truth, he needs to.

Dubois isn’t without hope, but unless Usyk has reversed more than we think, it’s more likely to be a repeat of their previous fight. Dubois will probably have a little more success, but I expect Usyk to ride out any rough moments that he might experience in the early stages, to grind his opponent down for a late rounds stoppage, in a fight that won’t disappoint.

Photo Credit: Queensberry/Leigh Dawney