Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3

This Friday night, Amanda Serrano will get her third and surely final opportunity to defeat Katie Taylor. The two great rivals are going back to where it all started in 2022. The fabled Madison Square Garden in New York will yet again play host. It will be another moment in time. The deepest and greatest all-female card in boxing history. Taylor (24-1) and Serrano (47-3-1) are the headline act. But the stellar supporting cast will set the scene quite nicely for the trilogy fight at the top of the card. In many ways, it could be the final chapter.

Jake Paul and his Most Valuable Promotions deserve immense credit for investing so much of their time and money into women’s boxing. Amanda Serrano will testify to that. The likes of Alycia Baumgardner, Savannah Marshall, Ellie Scotney, Chantelle Cameron, and many others are now all in that MVP family. A flourishing stable of elite female talent. Where others have faulted, Jake Paul has stepped up.

Without Paul, Serrano would have likely not got one shot at Katie Taylor, let alone three. Paul seems to dig deeper into his pockets to make fights happen. Serrano, especially, has gone from fighting for relative ‘scraps’ to now fighting for millions.

But Serrano needs to make it happen this Friday. The Puerto Rican is two down in their personal rivalry. Even Jake Paul is unlikely to have enough in his considerable salesman-like arsenal to sell a fourth fight if his fighter yet again fails to inflict some kind of blemish on that near-perfect resume of Katie Taylor. With a little luck, she would have done that already. Serrano will hope that it’s third time lucky this coming weekend.

That incredible first meeting in that iconic setting was close enough for at least some debate. I had Taylor edging it, but Serrano could have walked away with at least a share of the spoils. But last November, I thought Serrano was desperately unlucky not to have her hand raised. My first viewing of their second titanic battle was somewhat marred by the endless Netflix buffering we all had to endure on the night. But on second viewing, I had Serrano clearly winning the rematch. I had her up by three points, with Serrano winning six rounds on my card and the point deduction Taylor suffered, leaving little doubt in my mind that Serrano was denied a rightful victory. But not for the first time, Taylor got a decision that she could easily have lost. Or maybe more accurately, should have lost. Delfine Persoon was more than a touch unlucky to leave empty-handed in her two fights with Taylor. Serrano gets one final attempt at convincing the judges. This time, Serrano will know that she can’t leave any doubt.

At 39, after an endless barrage of hard nights, Taylor knows that the proverbial clock is ticking. But the chimes of impending doom have long been in the air. But Taylor seems to have that incredible will and desire to keep dragging that ageing body to give a little more. But at some point, Taylor will find she has no more to give. The two brutal fights with Chantelle Cameron and that second meeting with Serrano late last year are another thirty rounds in the bank that her body could have done without. At some point, and the more Taylor keeps pushing against the will of ‘Father Time,’ the well will undoubtedly run dry.

The bookies can’t split the pair. It’s extremely difficult to argue with that after what we have already seen the two modern-day legends serve up. Two close fights that were ultimately decided by wafer-thin margins. But I have a feeling, Serrano will finally have her moment.

Serrano will need a firm referee. Taylor is certainly prone to excessive holding as the rounds go by, and her gas tank starts to show signs of faltering, and her head has been a third weapon some fighters have had to deal with of late. Cameron and Serrano will undoubtedly have something to say on that score. In two consecutive fights, the head of Taylor has been very much in play. Deliberate or not, it is seemingly a constant problem for her opponents. Serrano will hope the referee will do enough to help, but equally, adjustments from the fighter herself will need to be made.

Taylor can never be written off. The undisputed super-lightweight champion will defend her belts on Friday with the same vigour and belief that she always does. But how much longer can her body keep on giving? Certainly, at the level, it will need to turn back the challenge of the formidable fighter she once again faces this weekend. The first twenty rounds were beyond brutal. Little is likely to change for the next instalment. The winner on Friday night will almost certainly be decided by who can dig deeper.

Serrano knows she can hurt Taylor. Maybe more crucially, Taylor knows that also. In both of their previous fights, Taylor has tasted the power of the big punching Puerto Rican. Taylor was badly stunned in the final seconds of the opening round of their rematch, and the bell almost certainly saved her. How Taylor survived that Serrano onslaught in that incredible 5th round in 2022 in that unbelievable first fight between the pair still defies belief. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this time, the greater power of Serrano does prove pivotal. But another ten pulsating back-and-forth rounds seems far more likely.

I think Serrano can finally get her win over Taylor at the third time of asking. If she avoids losing her head and avoiding Taylor’s, it could be the pinnacle night of Amanda Serrano’s already quite amazing career. Chantelle Cameron admitted she lost her composure when the Taylor head did it’s thing in their second meeting in 2023, and when Serrano saw blood last November for the very same reason, I think Serrano did also. If Serrano sticks to the game plan and avoids getting dragged into a typical Katie Taylor fight, I see her doing enough to this time convince the judges. But history tells us that Amanda Serrano might have to do more than enough.