Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Their first meeting was a fight of real intrigue. A case could legitimately be made for either fighter. It was an incredibly hard fight to pick a winner beforehand. And even though we have already seen them fight. In many ways, we are still in the exact same place that we were back in May.

I picked Oleksandr Usyk to beat Tyson Fury the first time around. A prediction made with little confidence. And even though I had Usyk winning beyond any reasonable doubt, I still think picking a winner in the rematch is as hard as it was in May. In truth, it might be even more difficult. Even though he lost the first fight, I can now more clearly see a route to victory for Tyson Fury.

Fury had pockets of success. It was probably a little more than that. Two really strong rounds as the halfway point was nearing. After his dominant 6th round, there only looked to be one winner. Fury looked as though he would even stop the former undisputed cruiserweight king. The stoppage looked imminent. Usyk not only survived, but he had the real big moment in the fight. A 9th round that turned the fight in his favour. Without it, he would have lost. But Fury yet again showed us his miracle-like recovery powers to finish the fight. Usyk edged it on the cards. Fury thought he won. But tonight, in the land of extreme excess, they go again. This time, I think it will be a definitive ending. Even if deciding who leaves Riyadh, the undisputed best heavyweight on the planet is still one of the utmost jeopardy. Last time, Usyk was crowned the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world for twenty-five years. The IBF bauble might now have gone elsewhere, but tonight’s winner will still be the one true heavyweight king.

I have a simple rule for picking a winner in a rematch. Who can be better? In simple terms, that would appear to be Fury. I think he is the fighter with more scope for improvement. This time, he hasn’t had to nurse his fragile eye through training camp. That terrible cut over his eye that delayed the first fight was still on the delicate side. This time, Fury has every right to say he will be better. He has trained in absolute solitude and away from any outside distractions. But while the mind will be willing, there are doubts if the body will play along. Have all those years of excess now caught up with the 36-year-old. It is one of those rare times where the older fighter is the fresher fighter. Or so we think.

Usyk has been unbreakable so far. Both physically and mentally. But you have to question whether he can improve on what he served in May. Usyk looked as though he was ready to crumble. But for whatever reason, Fury couldn’t build on his advantage. He faded away quite alarmingly as the fight closed out. In that pivotal 9th round, Fury was saved by a combination of the ropes, the referee, and the bell. But if that body of Fury can perform even marginally better tonight, then that might be enough to tip the balance his way. Usyk, I suspect, might have to go even deeper this time. At 37, he might not be able to. This might be the fight where size and weight matter more than anything else. This could very easily be the night the unbreakable warrior finally breaks.

I believe Fury will gamble more this time. His whole demeanour tells us that. Fury is promising a war. I think that is exactly what we will get. I think Fury will start faster. Throw more. Throw a little harder. He will hope that will be enough to bludgeon Usyk to a sensational inside-the-distance victory. But if it doesn’t work, the effects of his effort will almost certainly be his undoing. It literally is all or nothing for Fury. But whoever wins, I don’t envisage the judges being required this time. The odds of around 3-1 on either fighter to win inside the distance look far too good to ignore.

Despite having seen it all before, we are still not quite sure what we will get. The intrigue and the unknown are still very much in play. Fury is heavier this time. That will either work for him or against him. Another little extra dynamic. Another little unknown. I suspect even Fury will have doubts about his future at the top level. There have been clear signs of decline in the fights with Francis Ngannou and Usyk. Excuses can be made for both of his last two performances. In both fights, he has tasted the canvas. Not unusual for Fury, of course. But I do wonder if it’s a little more now. There will be no more excuses for Tyson Fury. It’s now or never for him.

My own rule of who will be better in the rematch should, by definition, lead me to Fury regaining his world heavyweight baubles. But I’m not that sure he will. The anticipated faster start could very well bring him what he needs, and spectacularly so. But will he last if the Ukrainian fighting machine is still standing after the initial onslaught? We will only know for sure when that first bell rings.

It really could go either way. Fury inside six. Or Usyk surviving some really troublesome early moments to stop a fading Fury in the second half of the fight. But maybe one is safer in picking the more reliable fighter. The more consistent fighter. That, for me, is Oleksandr Usyk. A prediction made with the same degree of confidence that it was back in May. Maybe even less so. A far safer bet is taking the money on the fight, not seeing the final bell. That is the only thing I am anywhere near certain of.

Photo Credit: DAZN/Leigh Dawney