Natasha Jonas vs. Ivana Habazin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Natasha Jonas vs. Ivana Habazin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Natasha Jonas will have what will almost certainly be her last ever fight in Liverpool on Saturday night. A farewell appearance in her hometown. Ivana Habazin will bring her WBC welterweight title to that fighting city. The Croatian also brings plenty of ambition.

The odds are wide. In truth, far too wide. Jonas is 1/10 to win. Habazin will see those odds as insulting. She will also be insulted by talk of the ‘Collision Course’ label that seems to indicate that Habazin is only in Liverpool to be the sacrificial lamb for what lies ahead.

“Let me tell you, I have been fighting in many big fights and promotions, but this is kind of disrespectful because all these talks of Jonas and Price, I’m a f****** world champion. I came here to fight, I believe in myself, and I’m here to flip the script!” Habazin has said in the fight week media obligations. She has a point.

Even Jonas agrees. “I did say to Sky that you pushing this a ‘Collision Course’ is a bit disrespectful to Habazin,” the Liverpool fighter told me recently. Talk of Jonas meeting Lauren Price, who defends her version of the welterweight title on the same Liverpool show, is incredibly premature. There are much stronger words to use.

Jonas, who defends her IBF bauble and could be a two-weight unified world champion if those long pre-fight odds in her favour are proved correct. But make no mistake, there is some serious jeopardy surrounding her fight on Saturday night.

At 40, Jonas is at an age where she could enter a ring and find that time has passed her by. As they say, Father Time is undefeated. We’ve only just witnessed Sunny Edwards finding out the sport has a habit of catching up with you at the most unexpected of times. Edwards is only 28 remember.

Throw in a far from ideal build-up for Jonas with dates coming and going without reward. And even when the fight with Habazin finally got over the line, it came at just a few weeks’ notice. Has that left enough time for Jonas to fine-tune and push her body into prime fighting shape? Having no fight since January is hardly beneficial for a fighter who is significantly better with regular ring activity. All things considered, Ivana Habazin could very easily be in the right place at the right time. At 7-1 to win, she is very much a live underdog. Trust me, she fancies it.

Habazin is a two-time world welterweight champion. But the five defeats on her record indicate that every time she has stepped up into true world class, she loses. The likes of Claressa Shields, Terri Harper, and Cecilia Brækhus have all beaten her. Eva Bajic also beat her in 2013, although Habazin got her revenge four years later. Mikaela Laurén stopped Habazin in three rounds in 2016 up at super-welterweight. But her form since is one of durability. Jonas probably accepts her route to victory will have to be by way of a decision.

Jonas does seem to age like fine wine. The win in January over Mikaela Mayer, who has since beat Sandy Ryan, was by a million miles the best win on her resume. It was beyond tough. It had a touch of controversy. It could legitimately have gone the other way. But Jonas emerged with that hard-earned split decision. Sadly for her, all the momentum gained from that career-defining victory was largely lost in the months of frustration that followed. A fighter that wanted 2024 to be her final year in the sport, now has to go into another calendar year for career completion. In many ways, a long goodbye. The details of those wasted months have previously been highlighted on this platform, we don’t need to go over them again. In simple terms, Jonas should have been treated better. But ‘Miss GB’ now has the opportunity and a potential clear future to put everything that has happened this year behind her. All she has to do is win. That might be easier said than done.

If Natasha Jonas is at her best, she will win. But equally, Jonas might need to be at her best to win. In several ways, her fight with Ivana Habazin has imminent danger written all over it.

Habazin has plenty to be encouraged about. The 35-year-old could leave Liverpool with a signature victory and a unified world welterweight champion. The emotional farewell could be spoiled by a fighter who isn’t just coming to make up the numbers. But despite the far from ideal build-up, Jonas just looks to have a little too much of everything for her.

The upset can’t be ruled out, and Habazin has been cruelly written off by many. Disrespect is very close to the bone here. But unless the wheels have completely come off in the eleven months of inactivity, then Jonas should have enough to see her home.

It might be harder, and closer, than a lot of people of think, but Jonas should have her hand raised after ten competive rounds. 

Photo Credit: Boxxer