Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk

The first undisputed heavyweight title fight this millennium. A staggering damming statistic that highlights perfectly why the sport has suffered so badly before the Saudi money entered the fray and made everyone forget what they had previously said about each other. Money changes everything. The lack of it will change everything back to where it once was. Boxing’s Fantasy Island will only last so long.

It has been an extremely long period of avoidance and protection. A time of excuses and parking the bus in the blame game. That Saudi dollar has put many things right. Promoters who once quite happily lambasted each other to help the kids with their clicks and to boost their own already inflated egos are now joined in seemingly perfect harmony. But the unwritten rule is apparently don’t question where that money comes from. The clicks and access are far more important than trying to add a little substance to their place in the heat. The sun can blind many things.

Earlier in fight week, John Fury stepped up from beating the living daylights out of some innocent piece of perspex to headbutting an equally innocent bystander and leaving his latest attention-seeking altercation with blood streaming down his face. The predictable camera-led frenzy that followed was akin to a chase scene out of Wacky Races or feeding time at the Zoo. Fury apparently gives them what they need. But in truth, the sport doesn’t need him or the ridiculous self-obsessed sideshow that he brings.

It was an embarrassing episode for all involved. Especially to those with cameras in hand who tried to milk it to an inch of its clickable life. It would have been preferable to see Fury relegated to a minor role, or even better, sent back home. But seeing Fury being used alongside an already oversaturated amount of talking heads on various broadcasts is even more regrettable than perhaps the headbutt itself. A blatant assault quickly forgotten. But the John Fury circus and all those that follow it aside, we have something very special and historic to look forward to this weekend.

If we can put our moral compass and conscience to one side, at least until the Saudi money wheel runs dry, boxing has benefited from finally seeing the fights that we have been clamouring for. Not least this weekend’s big undisputed heavyweight showdown between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk. It is by some distance, the biggest and most significant fight of this generation.

Lennox Lewis and Evander Holyfield danced for the same status in 1999. A time that was a three-belt era and the WBO was then nothing more than an annoyance than anything resembling acceptable. Now, a quarter of a century later, the WBO is now an accepted part of the extended alphabet family. Very soon we will soon have our very first undisputed heavyweight champion in the four-belt era. Or so we hope. Remember, the draw is only 12-1 in some places.

Fury the WBC heavyweight champion of the world, will face a fighter on Saturday night who has the skills to match, maybe even exceed his own. Usyk, the former undisputed cruiserweight champion, now looks to replicate that success at the higher weight. The Ukrainian national hero holds and defends the WBA, IBF, and WBO baubles. A victory over Fury will complete the set. You could argue with some conviction that Usyk is the best fighter Fury has ever faced. But that can be labelled the other way around as well. Both will have to solve problems that they have never seen previously.

It is an extremely difficult fight to predict, largely because we don’t know what version of Fury we will get. It would be easy to dismiss the fight with Francis Ngannou last year as a night where he just didn’t take it seriously enough. But was that really all it was?

The wins over Dillian Whyte and Derek Chisora were fights that Fury was never threatened. Make no mistake, Usyk most definitely does threaten.

But I do wonder if Fury is now on a permanent decline. A fighter at 35, who has suffered from excess and periods of inactivity at times in his career. Those three fights with Deontay Wilder were desperately hard career-shortening nights. More than arguably, neither Fury nor Wilder have been the same fighter since. A style that relies on his timing and reflexes. Against Usyk, Fury will need both. And a whole lot more.

Usyk, despite the obvious size disadvantage he will have to overcome, could just be Fury’s worst nightmare. Fury kept the likes of Whyte and Chisora at length. But Usyk will be a totally different proposition. The Ukrainian moves his feet in a way the two British heavyweights never could. Chisora and Whyte lumbered forward without reward. Usyk will do anything but.

Physically and mentally, Usyk is immensely exhausting to fight. The former undisputed world cruiserweight champion is a constant menacing and annoying presence when you share a ring with him. Will Fury be able to handle the problems that Usyk will give him? I have my doubts. Usyk could just suffocate Fury with angles and movement and precision like punches.

But as good as Usyk is, there are flaws. It’s a perceived open secret that he is vulnerable to the body. But Fury is hardly known for his body punching. At 37, is age catching up with Usyk also? Anthony Joshua, in his rematch with Usyk, had plenty of success and at times was comfortably holding his own, even in the finer arts of their craft. Only in the closing rounds did Usyk solidify his victory with that resounding fight-changing climax. You would suspect what Joshua did, Fury can and should do better. There are times in his heavyweight run, despite the successful nature of it, where he hasn’t fully convinced.

Usyk (21-0) didn’t look overly impressive against Daniel Dubois last time out, and even struggled with Chisora somewhat a few years ago, while Fury handled him with ease. Is that a telling sign that the bigger man will be the better man?

Back-to-back camps will help Fury. Any fighter is better with activity and discipline. Fury even more so. Physically, Fury looks like a completely different animal from the one we saw against Ngannou. His lightest in five years. Fury has prepared for Usyk in a way he didn’t for Ngannou.

Fury (34-0-1) has been a constant in camp for some time now. The original February date was scuppered by that awful cut to Fury’s eye. But the additional time I believe will benefit Fury. But the Fury camp will still be fearful that cuts will play a part in their man’s demise.

The odds are extremely close. Fury, a slight betting favourite. Before the Ngannou affair, the British fighter was comfortably favoured to beat Usyk. If we forget that Ngannou fight, the odds wouldn’t even be close I suspect. But can we really forget that fight?

Out of shape, out of focus or not, the Ngannou affair was still a major worry. An extremely limited former MMA fighter making his professional debut should not have given the so-called best heavyweight on the planet that amount of trouble. I thought Fury nicked it. But only just. We now know the Ngannou form line is hardly encouraging.

Size isn’t everything. But Fury brings immense skills to complement that sizable frame. The WBC champion could also employ a number of tactics for his potential route to victory. It’s not that hard to envisage Fury sliding, slipping, and fiddling his way to a points win. But he could equally use his bulk to lean on the much smaller Usyk, which brought much success in the second fight with Deontay Wilder. Or even a combination of the two. Fury would appear to have more ways to win.

But no matter how good Fury looks on the scales, he looked so poor against Ngannou that the alarm bells of his apparent decline are ringing too loudly to completely ignore. It wasn’t just the indignity of that humbling knockdown that he suffered courtesy of the fists of Ngannou. It was how he looked before and after it. Fury couldn’t find his timing or any kind of rhythm. While he now looks a whole lot better, how much sparring has he actually done in preparation for this camp to get that timing back? Did that cut that forced the postponement of the original February date heal in enough time for Fury to get that sharpness back? Victory may depend on that small matter. In many ways, that cut could determine who leaves that ring, the new undisputed heavyweight champion of the world.

The betting odds and many experts are struggling to separate the two undefeated heavyweights. It’s a fight with so many questions. But no easy answers. But respected journalists like Tris Dixon, Elliot Worsell, and Matt Christie have all gone for Usyk. Christie even thinks Usyk gets it done inside the distance. The recently departed Boxing News editor used words like Usyk breaking Fury’s heart. Even before the Ngannou fight, Christie always thought Usyk would beat Fury.

I do think it will be a purist type of fight. Periods of technical witchcraft that those who want blood, guts, and thunder may not fully appreciate. But it will be thoroughly absorbing nonetheless.

The jab and the uppercut will be the key-punches for Fury. He must keep Usyk at length. But equally, I think the legs of Fury will be even more definitive. If the legs hold up and they can carry him for thirty-six minutes, Fury will win. Usyk will surely look to set the pace from the get-go. The question will be, can Fury stay with him for twelve rounds?

It might be that the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. It could just be that fight with Ngannou was just a horrifically bad night that he wasn’t prepared for, and the embarrassment of it has reignited all the old fire. We could very easily see another Tyson Fury masterclass, and reports of his decline will have been greatly exaggerated. If that is the case, Fury will likely win, and with some comfort.

But without much conviction, I think Usyk will get the job done. I just think he will be too quick, too busy, and too accurate for a Fury who just has left it too late to change his ways. If Usyk is not too far behind on the cards after six rounds, I think he will pull away down the stretch to edge the fight on the scorecards, hopefully, without any controversy.

Photo Credit: Mikey Williams/Top Rank