Usyk vs. Dubois: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Usyk vs. Dubois: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

By Matt Elliott

Press Conference Quotes:

Oleksandr Usyk

“My preparation is all good. We did a lot of work with swimming. We played football. We danced.” 
 
“I’m grateful to my team, my family, my wife. I’m grateful to my country and to Ukrainian soldiers.”

Daniel Dubois

“I’m ready. I’ve suffered through training camp. I’ve done all of that. I’m ready now. I’ve prepared. I’ve left no stone unturned. I’m ready. I’m confident. I’m ready to go right now.”

As I write this preview, boxing has gone seven whole days without an innocent boxer testing positive for a sample they definitely did not consume (or at least we haven’t been informed of it yet). The killer question, therefore, is, will this still be the case by the time you get to the end of this preview? 

Anyway, aside from the recent events surrounding Alycia Baumgardner, Dillian Whyte and of course the long-running saga of Conor Benn, we do actually have a good heavyweight clash to look forward to this weekend, as unified world champion and recently signed-up member of the Saudi Arabian fan club, Oleksandr Usyk, takes on Daniel Dubois in Poland.

At first glance, this looks like a relatively standard defence for Usyk. Dubois, the mandatory challenger for the WBA title as a result of him holding the ‘regular’ version of the belt, has shown glimpses of what he is capable of in his twenty-fight professional career. That said, on the only previous occasion where he has faced top opposition, he suffered his only loss, as Joe Joyce stopped him back in 2020. Now, before you jump to the comments section to berate me for suggesting Joyce is anything like Usyk, I am certainly not drawing that comparison, more that he fell short when he last faced a notable heavyweight. Since that defeat, Dubois has bounced back well, and you have to applaud Frank Warren and Queensberry for how they have navigated him to this position. Let us not forget that he won the ‘regular’ belt in bizarre settings, on a Don King promotion in what looked like your local leisure centre, in front of about one hundred bewildered spectators. That was smart management, though, and it has led him to this opportunity.

What Dubois lacks in experience, he possesses in power, and unlike Anthony Joshua for the majority of his two fights with Usyk, he has to find a way to use it. That is easier said than done, though. Usyk’s work rate, movement, technical prowess, and excellent combinations mean Dubois has to take risks. There is little point trying to take this fight into the later rounds, either looking for Usyk to tire or to simply lose on points and walk away with an element of pride intact. Dubois needs to try to take the fight to Usyk and land big shots early, to send a message that, if nothing else, he means business. Joshua failed to do that, at least in their first fight, and it just meant Usyk grew in confidence. Dubois can not repeat that mistake.

The difficulty Dubois has, though, is that by taking risks, he leaves himself wide open to the Usyk counter. That is something he will just have to accept and hope he can find a way to land a knockout punch. That, for me, is what makes the fight an interesting one. This is the one chance for Dubois, and he has to be confident enough to grab it. This is also his first fight without Shane McGuigan in his corner. Whether changing trainer at this stage is the right move remains to be seen but Dubois will walk out with Don Charles by his side, and it will be intriguing to see what, if any, changes he has been able to implement in their brief time together.

Ultimately, despite all of that, I can not see anything other than a Usyk victory. I think Dubois starts cautiously before looking to impose his power from round three onwards, but Usyk comes through that and dominates the fight, perhaps even securing his first heavyweight title stoppage victory, but more likely taking a unanimous decision.

The fight is pay-per-view and available on TNT Sports Box Office.

Photo Credit: Piotr Duszczyk