Joshua vs Franklin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Joshua vs Franklin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Anthony Joshua heads back to the O2 Arena on Saturday nght and is, in many ways, back to basics for the former two-time heavyweight champion of the world.

Under new trainer Derrick James, his third in as many fights, Joshua has prepared in Dallas, a spit and sawdust gym certainly in comparison to what he had been used to. Joshua has prepared in isolation for what could quite easily be the final fight of his career. That solitude is exactly what was needed. The stripped-back entourage should have come several fights ago.

But Jermaine Franklin could be in the right place at the right time. With more time to prepare than he was afforded last time out, Franklin is what they call in the trade a live underdog, especially if he faces a Joshua who is mentally fragile after losing three out of his last five fights and will almost certainly be forced to call time on his boxing life if he loses again. Franklin has little pressure on his shoulders and he has nothing to lose. Joshua has everything to lose.

Many, including this observer, thought the American beat Dillian Whyte last November. Whyte was extremely fortunate to have his hand raised, but Franklin gets a second chance to change his life in London on Saturday night.

The fight has been heavily criticised, and ticket sales have been slower than expected. Only in the last few days has it been announced as a sell-out. Despite the criticism, after two hard and losing fights against Oleksandr Usyk, Joshua can be excused for dropping down a level or two in facing Franklin, but the American is no soft touch. Make no mistake, Joshua could have picked a far easier fight for his comeback. Franklin showed against Whyte that he is a more than capable operator at this level. That version of Dillian Whyte showed signs of much decay, but Franklin showed enough to offer enough hope and add a little intrigue to his chances against Joshua. The former Olympic Champion is 1/16 to get his career back on track, but the 8-1 Skybet offer for the upset shouldn’t be easily dismissed.

Joshua has looked lost at times since Andy Ruiz took away plenty in New York back in 2019. In truth, something has been missing ever since that fateful night in Madison Square Garden. Too many voices in his ear haven’t helped. All he really needs is one true voice. His own.

The constant switching of trainers has the look of a fighter searching for something that can’t be found or fixed. But Joshua can take some degree of comfort from his second losing effort against Usyk last August. Joshua was well in the fight after 9 rounds, and after an extremely strong 9th round, he looked like the likely winner until Usyk found another gear to yet again beat Joshua on points. But Joshua boxed well enough to suggest he could come again. Franklin might not give us all the answers to the long-term fighting future of Joshua. But he will give us enough.

Joshua has come in heavy at 255 lbs, his heaviest ever weight in his professional career to date. A return to the old explosive Joshua we are promised. How he wins is obviously important. But the reality is Joshua just needs to win. Any kind of a win keeps the show on the road. The manner of any victory is likely to dictate the level of opponent that Joshua will face next.

While any win will do on Saturday night, Joshua will surely look to deliver a statement-making definitive performance to remind everyone of his talents and reignite his flagging status in the sport. You sense Joshua needs a stoppage win probably more so than at any stage in his career. An uninspiring points victory will not give much hope that Joshua has much of a chance of beating the fighters who sit in and around him in the upper echelons of the heavyweight division. Usyk has already beaten Joshua twice but the likes of Tyson Fury, Deontay Wilder, and Joe Joyce would all be favoured to beat him also. A little reminder against Franklin would put at least some doubt on that viewpoint.

But Joshua, since that horror night against Ruiz, has flirted with different trainers, different weights, and different fighting styles. Joshua has looked uncertain in the ring. Maybe even more so out of it. Uncertainty in mind and body is never a good sign for someone who wants to once again be crowned the heavyweight champion of the world.

Franklin hasn’t had a clear road to fight night himself. Legal issues with his promoter Dmitry Salita are hardly a sign of unity. A distraction Franklin didn’t need. The timing of it is beyond strange. It may or not make any difference to the result on Saturday night. But it certainly doesn’t help.

The initial lukewarm response to the fight has largely subsided as the first bell approaches. The promotion for the fight this week has been immaculate, you simply can’t avoid the publicity that surrounds it. I’m not excited about the fight but equally, I’m not disappointed by it. The fight and the opponent serve many purposes.

Franklin is a good choice of opposition when there is so much at stake for Joshua. In reality, the American sits outside of the top 10 heavyweights in the world, but the performance against Whyte more than justifies his seat at the table. Even if it slightly flatters him. Whyte looks to be a fighter very much on the slide, and if he had faced Joshua on that night I believe he would not have seen the final bell.

Franklin does have credentials and is a decent enough heavyweight in his own right. And if Joshua gambles for the early stoppage and it doesn’t come, I could see Franklin working his way into the fight to make it a distinctly uncomfortable evening if the suspect Joshua gas tank lets him down again. Those 8-1 odds are not without hope.

But Joshua has to be favoured to win, especially against an opponent who doesn’t appear to hit hard enough to inflict enough damage on that brittle chin of Joshua. The British fighter does have a reputation for going over a little too easily. But I doubt Franklin will cause him too many problems in that department.

Joshua has come in heavy for a reason, and while I do think he will box with some degree of caution in the early stages, I do see Joshua getting that inside-the-distance win he badly needs to breathe new life into his career. A victory that will likely come with as much relief as euphoria.

Photo Credit: Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing