UFC 282 Main Event Preview & Prediction

UFC 282 Main Event Preview & Prediction

By Cathal Geeney

Jan ‘Prince of Cieszyn’ Blachowicz v Magomed Ankalaev

In a late change to proceedings, the vacant UFC light-heavyweight title will be up for grabs in Las Vegas this weekend as Jan Blachowicz takes on Magomed Ankalaev.

This card was initially set to be headlined by Jiri Prochazka and Glover Texeira until Jiri was forced to vacate his belt after suffering a serious shoulder injury. Glover went on record to say that he was willing to fight Jan on December the 10th but would need additional time to prepare for Ankalaev given his style. The UFC insisted that Ankalaev would be involved in tonight’s main event, so it came to be that Jan and Magomedov would headline.

This is a huge opportunity for both men in a division still waiting for a dominant champion to emerge. Jan became the first 205-pound titleholder other than Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones in almost ten years when he defeated Dominick Reyes in September 2020. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelt put on an excellent display of striking and finished the American in the second round. This was followed up with a successful defence against Isreal Adesanya relying more on his grappling abilities to secure control time and take a decision win.

Jan was defeated by Glover in October of last year by second-round submission in a contest where he was comfortably outclassed by Glover’s takedowns and top pressure. This will be concerning for Jan’s corner as he goes up against a fighter with extensive wrestling and sambo experience. Despite this loss, the Polish fighter bounced back with a victory over Aleksander Rakic through TKO in May of this year, setting up the showdown with Ankalaev.

The fact that Glover was not willing to step in to face Magomed without taking additional time to train speaks to the skill of the Russian mixed martial artist. Magomed is still relatively inexperienced in the professional ranks with only nineteen bouts compared to Jan’s thirty-eight, but he has extensive amateur MMA and Combat Sambo exposure. Unsurprisingly for a Dagestani fighter, Magomed’s career in martial arts commenced in wrestling and he is a dominant grappler with strong control and ground-and-pound abilities.

In addition to his wrestling prowess, Ankalaev has knockout power and exceptional timing. From the southpaw stance, he will look to put his lead right hand to work, often catching his opponent with perfectly-timed counter shots capable of changing the course of the fight.

The thirty-year-old was submitted in his UFC debut to Paul Craig but has since made it nine consecutive victories inside the octagon including wins over top competition and former title challengers such as Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos and Volkan Oezdemir.

Both men have solid kickboxing skills and mix their kicks in nicely to their offence. I can see this being a tactical affair as the fighters look to feel each other out and find an edge. The work in the clinch could be a deciding factor and something Jan in particular will need to be wary of.

Prediction:

This is a tough fight to call. Magomedov has gone from strength to strength in the light heavyweight division and has proved he is deserving of a title shot. His mix of wrestling and striking makes him such a dangerous opponent. He is also an intelligent fighter. Magomed picks his shots at the right time and remains calm throughout, even when he has been rocked or caught in an uncomfortable position. He has all the makings of a champion and I foresee him fulfilling his potential.

But I think with the experience of Blachowicz, going in as an underdog, he can ensure that that this weekend is not Ankalaev’s time. I will take the Prince of Cieszyn to cause a surprise and have his hand raised as the 205-pound champion of the world once again.

Photo Credit: UFC/Zuffa LTD