UFC 281 Preview & Predictions

UFC 281 Preview & Predictions

By Cathal Geeney

Adesanya vs Pereira

The main event sees Israel Adesanya take on Alex Pereira for the UFC middleweight title. This will be their first time facing off in an MMA bout although the two have a history. Pereira defeated Israel Adesanya twice previously competing under the Glory Kickboxing banner. In fact, Adesanya’s last competitive kickboxing bout was a knockout loss to Pereira.

The champion’s game is built around his incredible striking precision and speed. Transitioning from a kickboxing background, the Last Stylebender utilises every bit of his 80-inch range to pick his opponent off with an array of punches and kicks. While if you try and negate his reach advantage by rushing him, his movement and counter punches land with devastating effect.

Israel Adesanya is without a doubt one of the most talented MMA fighters in the world right now. His run in the middleweight division has been incredible. To put some context around it, Adesanya is undefeated as a middleweight and has defeated five of the top six ranked middleweights in the UFC, including two victories over number one ranked Robert Whittaker and number six ranked Derek Brunson.

His pure dominance at 185-pounds had resulted in some fans calling the middleweight division boring and uninteresting. For a former foe, who has previously knocked out Adesanya, to appear on the scene and set up a showdown after only three UFC appearances, reads like a Hollywood script.

Pereira will enter the octagon as an underdog, which is understandable given he has only fought six professional MMA bouts. He lost his debut in 2015 before fighting twice more and taking a hiatus. He returned in 2020 fighting once for LFA before being signed to the UFC and going on a three fight win streak.

Like his opponent, Pereira is a very patient, technical striker. He likes to feint and set up traps. The trademark strike of the challenger is the lead left hook. He has used this numerous times across his kickboxing and MMA career. One only needs to look back to his most recent appearance against Sean Strickland. Strickland felt that he could kickbox with  Pereira and went toe-to-toe standing. This resulted in an early nights work for Pereira who landed the lead left hook in the first round rendering Strickland almost unconscious.

The lack of experience is a genuine concern for São Paulo born fighter. Although the Brazilian is a training partner of former light heavyweight champion which will have surely helped his ascent to the contender position. There are few better competitors to test yourself against than Glover.

The grappling of both fighters could be questioned going into the fight, but I don’t anticipate a whole lot of grappling on display in Madison Square Garden. There may be some interesting clinch exchanges, but for the most part this fight should see two top level strikers go to war and could very well prove to be a classic.

Prediction:

I cannot wait for this showdown. In the build up to this bout, the Last Stylebender has been outspoken about having special something up his sleeve and bringing a surprise. For me, this very much remains to be seen. I would expect a more cautious approach for the reigning champion, with lots of leg kicks and jabs.

As much as Adesanya says he is ready to put on a show and successfully defend his belt, I think Pereira could cause real problems. He is extremely powerful at 185 pounds and holding a KO over his opponent will surely give him a mental edge. I am going to take Alex Pereira to become the next middleweight champion, potentially setting up another Adesanya/ Pereira showdown in the future.

Esparza vs Weili Zhang

The UFC strawweight title is on the line in NYC as Carla Esparza looks to make her first successful title defence. The American made history earlier this year as she became the fighter to regain a UFC title with the greatest duration in between reigns when she defeated Rose Namajunas. She had previously become champion by submitting Namajunas in December of 2014.

Despite her recent victory, Esparza came under fire for her performance against Rose which turned into a pedestrian five rounder with very little notable action. It appeared that Namajunas was trying to be patient which allowed Esparza to get over the line with a split decision win.

Regardless of the criticism, this latest triumph made it a very impressive six-successive victories for the Californian. In terms of her fighting style, there are no secrets to Esparza’s success, she is very much reliant on her wrestling ability.

The NAIA Division 1 wrestler has managed to land nineteen successful takedowns in her last six fights, while only being taken down four times. When in top position, Carla will look to rack up control time, while mixing in a dominant ground and pound game.

The striking of the challenger has also improved of late. Esparza is doing a better job of blending her takedowns into her striking and keeping her opponent guessing.  But ultimately, the path to victory for Carla Esparza depends on her ability to secure takedowns on the night.

While Carla is coming into the fight with some doubt around her last showing, the same cannot be said about Weili. The Chinese fighter made a statement in her last outing by finishing Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the first round. This was a huge victory for the former strawweight titleholder as she had just suffered back-to-back losses against Rose Namajunas. It was important for Weili to make a statement and remind her peers that she is still a top contender at 115 pounds.

Outside of her battles with Namajunas, the thirty-three year is undefeated in the UFC having racked up an impressive five fight win streak since entering the organisation with victories over the likes of Tecia Torres, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Weili is a very complete fighter. She is light on her feet, with a more traditional Muay Thai stance, throwing feints and looking to a very solid jab to set up her combinations, while possessing both speed and power. She is happy to wait on her opponent to make the first move, before countering with a powerful left hook or right straight. Zhang fluently mixes in kicks, attacking the leg of her opponent as well as firing off spinning kicks to the body.

In terms of grappling, Weili has only been successfully taken down twice inside the UFC octagon. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu purple belt is dominant on the canvas where she can land dangerous ground and pound attacks or look to add to her seven career submission victories. In her last two fight camps, she has spent time training with the Olympic gold medallist, Henry Cejudo, at Fight Ready in Scottsdale, Arizona and so Zhang will be focusing on fine tuning her all round wrestling game in preparation for an opponent like Esparza.

Prediction:

I am confident in the striking of Weili and feel she will have a major advantage in this area. Furthermore, I expect the challenger to demonstrate a strong grappling skillset and to be capable of repelling any grappling advances from the reigning defending champion. I will take Weili Zhang to regain the 115-pound strap.

I still think it is worth noting that Esparza has been the underdog in four of her last five fights, despite being victorious in all of them. She knows how it feels to be an underdog and has shown that she won’t let this get to her. So I would advise to proceed with caution for those like myself picking against the Cookie Monster.

Photo Credit: UFC/Zuffa