UFC 280 Preview & Predictions

UFC 280 Preview & Predictions

By Cathal Geeney

Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira v Islam Makhachev

One of the most anticipated cards in recent memory will go down on Saturday night in the Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi as Charles Oliveira takes on Islam Makhachev for the vacant 155-pound title.

The lightweight title was vacated in controversial circumstances as Oliveira missed weight when he looked to defend his title against Justin Gaethje in May of this year. The Brazilian claimed that there was a calibration issue with the scale at the weigh-ins, as he weighed in half a pound over the limit.

While circumstances around this fight must have been frustrating, this was not reflected in the performance of Do Bronx as he secured a first-round stoppage victory, making it eleven consecutive UFC victories and three stoppages in a row.

Oliveira has developed a unique style of setting the tone early on: closing distance, striking wildly and applying pressure. Oliveira takes calculated risks to push the pace which generally pays dividends as the fight progresses. This has its drawbacks as he has also been dropped in his last three outings.

Fortunately for Oliveira, his opponents have not been able to capitalise when he has been hurt. They have instead allowed him to take a breather when he has been knocked down, instead of risking getting trapped in his guard given his grappling expertise. And this is not surprising as Charles holds the record for the most submissions in UFC history with sixteen.

In Islam Makhachev, Oliveira will be presented with a vastly different type of challenge. Makhachev is a tenacious grappler with incredible cardio. The Russian fighter will look to get this bout to the mat at all costs. Fighting from a southpaw stance, he will throw some feints and jabs, and attack with the left kick, but this will only serve to close the distance to allow for a takedown.

And when Islam gets the fight where he wants it, he has proven to be lethal, securing stoppage victories in each of his last four contests. The 2016 World Combat Sambo Championship gold medallist has a wide array of takedown techniques with particularly eye-catching trips. And once on top, he looks to dominate, controlling the legs and working for a submission or technical stoppage.

Confidence will be high in the Makhachev camp. He is currently riding a ten-fight win streak and will have the former lightweight champion, and arguable greatest ever UFC competitor, Khabib Nurmagomedov in his corner. Having spent years training with Khabib will have only helped provide Islam with the self-belief that he can become the next lightweight champion on Saturday night.

Prediction:

This is a fascinating match up. We have seen Charles Oliveira shock the world repeatedly with his impressive chin and durability. But this will be a very different challenge to overcome. While most will do everything in their power to avoid going to ground with Oliveira, this is exactly where Makhachev wants the fight.

And while I foresee Islam having plenty of success with his grappling, and pushing Oliveira to the limit, I still think the disparity in striking will play a major role in this fight. I am predicting Oliveira to have his hand raised in an exciting back and forth and once more raise the lightweight championship belt.

Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira

 
Aljamain ‘Funk Master’ Sterling v TJ Dillashaw

The bantamweight title is on the line on Saturday night as Aljamain Sterling looks to defend his belt against the former champion, and self-proclaimed greatest bantamweight of all time, TJ Dillashaw.

Sterling became the first UFC fighter to win a title by disqualification, when he got a DQ victory over Petr Yan in March of 2021. The months following this were a testing time for Aljo as he underwent neck surgery while also being ridiculed, unfairly in my opinion, for how he won his title.

To Sterling’s credit, he was open that he underperformed on the night, was fortunate to get the DQ, and was adamant that he would prove to the world that he was in fact the deserving champion. And when they rematched in April of this year, that was the case as Funk Master took a close, but deserved, split-decision victory, making it seven consecutive victories and cementing his status as the best 135-pounder in the world.

There were some raised eyebrows when it was announced that TJ Dillashaw would be the next challenger for the title. The bantamweight division is swarming with top class talent and so it did not necessarily make a lot of sense that a single victory (which was a razor close split decision win over Corey Sandhagen) after losing a flyweight title shot against Henry Cejudo, and subsequently failing a drug test for that fight, would earn him a crack at gold. Fortunately for TJ, his body of work in becoming a two-time bantamweight champion with three successful title defences was enough in the eyes of the UFC brass to make it happen.

And while this will be TJs second walk to the octagon in almost four years, I would be reluctant to right off the Californian fighter. In his last outing he demonstrated a real hunger to win. Sandhagen was the crisper striker on the night and caused Dillashaw plenty of trouble, but the thirty-six year old kept persevering and coming forward, doing enough to secure the victory in the eyes of the three men scoring the fight.

What makes this fight so interesting is the similarity in style of both fighters. Aljamain and TJ started off their combat sports career in collegiate wrestling before transitioning to MMA. And likewise, both developed an effective, high output striking game to complement their grappling pedigree which sees lots of stance switching and unorthodox attacks which makes for an intriguing showdown.

Prediction:

On paper, this fight has everything needed to give fans a fight to remember; high stakes, highly skilled martial artists and all-action fighting styles.

Given the wrestling backgrounds of both fighters, it will be interesting to see how this plays out and essentially who looks to initiate the grappling exchanges. I believe Sterling will look to live up to his nickname as the ‘Human Backpack’ and take the lead in getting this fight to the canvas. While in terms of striking, I feel like TJ may be able to outwork Sterling and land more meaningful strikes.

This is a very difficult fight to predict between two elite athletes but I am going to take TJ Dillashaw as the underdog for this one. The heart he displayed in his last fight was an encouraging sign for me. If this fight goes into deep waters, I feel TJ will be able to put everything on the line once more in order to secure a victory.

TJ Dillashaw