Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Shields vs Marshall

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Shields vs Marshall

It has been a long time in the making, but in many ways, the time is right.

Last week was a shambolic, distressing, shameful depressing week that highlighted everything that was wrong with boxing. This Saturday night at the O2 Arena in London we will get everything that is right with it. It will be a celebration, a party atmosphere and one that the sport badly needs. As they say, out of darkness light will follow. We have that light.

It is a night when women’s boxing moves a little closer to acceptance. It’s not quite there yet. It should be. It’s getting there. The all-female card this Saturday should be the final nail in any remaining apathy or ignorance.

Claressa Shields has tasted defeat only once in her boxing career. To her rival on Saturday night. But in truth, her defeat to Savannah Marshall in 2012 means very little. The importance lies in the storytelling, the narrative, and the hype that surrounds the fight for undisputed status at middleweight. In regards as to who will win on Saturday night, it means absolutely nothing.

There does seem to be ignorance, delusion even, from some that Marshall only has to turn up and land, to repeat her amateur win over Shields from ten years ago. That is an insult to the two-time Olympic champion and a fighter with multiple world titles to her name. The odds are close, too close to confidently call. Remember, the bookmakers rarely get it wrong.

It is in truth, a defining fight for both. A case could be made for either fighter to leave London with every meaningful belt around their waist. Could it be that simple that if it goes the full 10 rounds, the American wins? Does Marshall have to stop Shields to win? Either could be true. It’s that kind of fight. Both fighters are going into this fight facing the very real prospect that they will lose.

Marshall froze in the Olympics, the American dream failed to materialise at the start of her professional career and it wasn’t until she impressively dismantled Hannah Rankin in 2020 to win the WBO middleweight title did Marshall really start to turn heads. The fighter who froze under the lights in 2012 has long since gone. Rankin was very much her coming out party.

The American has overcome a difficult traumatising start to her life, and her resume is seriously impressive. And she carries an incredible self-belief that hasn’t dimmed one bit in the lead-up to the biggest fight of her life.

Marshall has that relaxed but suffocating style, and with the power, she carries in her fists, she will be incredibly hard to beat. But in Shields, she is facing a different level of opponent to what she has seen so far in her unbeaten twelve-fight career.

The American has been criminally written off by some, which seems incredibly short-sighted and more when you look at her record. Much of it is almost certainly down to Shields and her brash and often outspoken manner. A hope perhaps that Marshall will shut the American up once and for all. But whatever you think of Shields as a person, and you do have to remember the fighter behind the camera is often different from the one in front of it, she is still a formidable fighter. The persona might not be for everyone, but she knows what she is doing. Selling the fight. And doing it quite brilliantly either by design or otherwise.

Both fighters have sold the life out of the show. Shields especially has something you just can’t fake. Her performance at the final press conference was pure Hollywood. Natasha Jonas told me earlier this week that we might not truly appreciate Shields until she is in retirement. Jonas is right, but I do think most people, even some of the Marshall cheerleaders are now starting to get, appreciate and even like Shields. She is most certainly one of a kind and is undoubtedly incredibly entertaining. Pure box office gold.

Shields will pose her own set of problems once the pre-fight words are assigned to history and irrelevance, and she is likely to win most if not all of the early rounds. The question is will Marshall have her own brand of catch-up to eradicate any points deficit on the cards? Remember power is often the great equaliser.

There is seemingly genuine hate between the two but make no mistake, with more than a hint of respect thrown in for good measure. But strip away all the noise that surrounds it, it is a genuinely good fight and one that is very hard to predict a winner. Too many times, even at this level, we don’t get that. Skybet has Marshall as the slight betting favourite. In reality, it is a genuine 50/50 fight. And the two contrasting personalities, bring pure theatre to the proceedings.

Marshall, the WBO middleweight champion, wants to outbox, hurt, and then stop Shields, who defends her WBC, WBA, and IBF titles and her mythical GWOAT status. But pinning Shields down will be far from easy. And the greater the success Shields finds in the early rounds could frustrate an opponent who must not rely on one punch to change the trajectory of a fight that is likely to be more Chess-like rather than an all-out war. Marshall will need patience. And probably plenty of it.

Shields, with her many achievements, has largely had own her way in twelve professional fights. One solitary knockdown is the only real sign of trouble. How will she react if things start to go badly wrong and she has to overcome real adversity? But equally, the same question and doubts could be aimed at Marshall. How will she react if Shields starts fast and lands with frequency, and she finds the fight slipping away from her?

Marshall at 31, could be the more complete fighter right now. Despite what Shields has achieved, she might be the fighter who is yet to peak. You sense she has room to improve. Timing could be on the side of the British fighter.

Shields 27, will win rounds, how hard she has to work in doing so, will determine her fate. If she wins those crucial early rounds with the minimum of fuss, in more ways than one, she will take some catching. The two-minute rounds could be an important factor, a decisive one even, in this fight. Make no mistake, the American is more than capable of winning this fight.

All the talk is about the power of Marshall, but her footwork and how she glides in and out of range could be even more important in her route to victory. Marshall is far more than just a power puncher.

The first time around I picked Marshall to win, but time has made me doubt a prediction that in truth, came with very little confidence or conviction in the first place. Who wins really is the flip of a coin, and while changing a prediction is never wise, I just have a feeling Shields will get her redemption in a fight where she will spend twenty minutes walking that boxing tightrope. But one mistake, and whatever the scorecards may say, will mean nothing.

Phone Credit: Lawrence Lustig/Boxxer