Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Mayer vs Baumgardner

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Mayer vs Baumgardner

If anyone was worried that women’s boxing had peaked when Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano served up that unforgettable classic in April, their concerns are extremely misplaced. This weekend will tell you exactly that.

After the shameful events of last week, boxing needs a lift. At the O2 Arena on Saturday night, it will get it.

Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall will settle their differences on a historic night that will shine some much-needed light on a sport that currently has many dark clouds circling over it. But while Shields and Marshall will grab many of the headlines, two Americans may steal the whole show.

Make no mistake, Mikaela Mayer and Alycia Baumgardner don’t like each other. Probably the understatement of any year. Bad blood and more. The two heated rivals do battle to unify the world super-featherweight titles. In truth, despite the WBA title not being on the line and probably never will be on this sort of stage, the fight on Saturday is for true undisputed status. The best fighter in the division will be crowned at the O2. A forever missing piece of the jigsaw will not change that.

Baumgardner (12-1) brings power and plenty of it to the proceedings. The way she destroyed Terri Harper last year in September, had the look of a fighter who had blasted her way out of relative obscurity to potential superstar status. But a short-notice fight with Edith Soledad Matthysse in April did her few favours. Baumgardner was dominant but as the fight dragged on, it lost much of its interest and appeal. Sometimes you need a little more to get attention. Against Mayer, she will need a lot more.

Baumgardner has come up the hard way, unnoticed in comparison to her opponent on Saturday night, learning her craft. Her one defeat in 2018 means very little today. Different times, Baumgardner will have learned plenty. We shouldn’t hold it against her. She took a risk and is likely a better fighter now because of it. Mayer hasn’t had it easy herself, the golden contract with Top Rank was earned on the back of her amateur achievements. Mayer has come from nothing, the teenage rebel without a cause, to be where she is today. In different ways, both deserve all the attention that the grudge fight has brought them. The two world champions have sold the fight quite magnificently. Boxing needs fights like this. In time, both will come to appreciate that at this moment in time, they needed each other.

For both, it could be a statement fight and one that takes them to the next level. Who wins will likely fall into Katie Taylor territory, Mayer has made no secret of her intentions to dance with the Irish superstar. A win for Baumgardner will open many doors for her.

Mayer (17-0) has the better amateur resume, the Olympic pedigree, and her pro career has surpassed that of her fellow American. At least, to this point. One punch from Baumgardner might make everything that came before irrelevant. Mayer believes she is on another level and once she finds her rhythm, Baumgardner won’t be able to go with her.

But Baumgardner has she showed against Harper, shouldn’t be overlooked. The power is one thing, but she is more than capable of winning if she finds success early and gets into her own rhythm. And it wasn’t just a one-punch wonder against Harper, Baumgardner bossed virtually every second of the fight. But can she replicate that against Mayer?

Mayer must not let the fight get away from her in the early rounds. The two-minute rounds give far less time to catch up. Mayer can’t afford to be too wary about the weight of the punch and not do enough good work herself. But equally, she can’t fight Baumgardner the way she fought Maiva Hamadouche last November. Tactically, this is an incredibly intriguing fight.

The fight with Hamadouche was an unrelenting pulsating war. The style worked against Hamadouche it most certainly won’t work against the big-punching Baumgardner. But Mayer won’t offer that style to Baumgardner. And that is perhaps the big difference between the two fighters. Mayer seemingly has more ways to fight and win. Baumgardner may only have one. Against Mayer, what happens if Baumgardner can’t land the big right hand. And if she does, and Mayer goes nowhere, will that decide the fight right there and then.

But there is the added little caveat about how much of a struggle each fighter has making weight. Both are without much doubt tight at the weight, how tight, could be the difference. More so, when you consider they have had to do it twice within a matter of weeks. A variable that only the two fighters really know.

As impressive as the win over Harper was, did it flatter Baumgardner to a degree? Harper had the look of a fighter who was dead at the weight, and her punch resistance would undoubtedly have been affected. But is Mayer now in a similar position? Is this one fight too many at super-featherweight?

But Mayer insists she had no issues making weight back in September, saying it was her best weight cut ever. And certainly, in her fights of late, especially against Hamadouche, there has been no apparent evidence of a fighter who has left everything in the sauna. Baumgardner will hope on Saturday night, Mayer is a depleted fighter. Her chances of victory may depend on it.

Baumgardner is not without hope, and it could turn out to be a fight that takes her to a new stratosphere in her career. A win over Mayer changes everything. It might only take one punch.

But Mayer is the fighter who seemingly has more gears, and you sense Baumgardner, if she doesn’t do some serious damage early, it will turn into a very long night for her. Baumgardner is the fighter who desperately needs a good start.

Baumgardner will always carry danger, but as the fight progresses, that danger will slowly fade. I see it being even for the first 4 rounds with Mayer intent on keeping the fight long and her rival looking to unleash that right hand. I do see Baumgardner having a big moment in those opening few rounds. How big a moment that is, you sense could be pivotal as to who has their hands raised in victory. If Baumgardner can’t hurt Mayer early, her hopes of victory will reduce greatly.

Mayer is the fighter who I see doing more damage in the second half of the contest, gradually pushing Baumgardner back and boxing more on the front foot. Baumgardner may do a little better than the odds suggest, Skybet has her as the 9/4 betting outsider, but a Mayer win on points looks like the more likely outcome.