Rankin vs Harper: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Rankin vs Harper: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Hannah Rankin has been in this position previously. A place on a Matchroom show granted only by way of being the perceived opponent. In the traditional boxing manner, and in simple terms, brought in to lose.

Back in the dark days of fight bubbles, Savannah Marshall proved too big and too good for a brave but ultimately outgunned Rankin. But the passing of time has been kind to that night. And indeed Rankin. Marshall could very well be the best female fighter on the planet. Rankin was far from disgraced in a fight where she was very much out of her comfort zone.

In Nottingham on Saturday night, Rankin returns to a Matchroom show. And despite being a unified world champion, she finds herself once again brought in as the opponent. Her opponent claims Rankin is the B-side. Rankin disagrees of course, but in boxing where money and the ‘home’ fighter tag carry too much weight, that is the position the Scottish fighter finds herself in.

Rankin defends her WBA and IBO super-welterweight titles against Terri Harper in a fight of much intrigue and no little interest. And a fight that carries audition status for potentially a much bigger fight somewhere down the road.

Both will look to target Natasha Jonas, the unified WBC and WBO champion, for many reasons that might be a fight that will not be easily finalised. Or financed. Especially, if Harper becomes a world champion at a second weight.

Rankin could already have shared a ring with Jonas. Two attempts have been made, and on both occasions, Rankin has gone elsewhere. And in the latest case, it is the reason why Harper gets her chance of world glory again on Saturday night.

Maybe it is telling that Rankin chose Harper over Jonas. Is it a fight the Rankin camp think is more winnable? Or was the financial offer just too good to turn down? The offer to fight Jonas came with further options and other benefits. It offered a little slice of security even if Jonas had beaten her. Does the Harper deal offer anything after Saturday night? There appears to be no rematch clause if Rankin loses, and if as suspected it is a one-fight and done deal if Rankin loses, it is one big gamble that if it backfires, could leave Rankin out in the cold. It might be a fight that leaves many regrets.

But equally, is it a sign of supreme confidence from Rankin. And the Scottish fighter certainly hasn’t lacked for confidence as the first bell nears. Her words carry much conviction. And belief.

Harper has shared a few minutes in sparring with Rankin, and she appears to take plenty from their brief session together. It might be the reason the fight is happening. Harper has found her voice, a fighter who seemingly knows something we don’t. There is something different in her demeanour this week. A fighter who believes victory is a mere formality. The odds suggest that also.

But moving through the weights is never as straightforward as that. History tells us that. Weight divisions exist for a reason as the bigger fighter will always tell you. But Jonas has already shown in this very division it is more than possible. Harper has followed the very same path.

Claims of being weight drained against Alycia Baumgardner when she lost her world super-featherweight titles carry much validity. And even in her comeback fight at lightweight earlier this year, it wasn’t without struggle. And it prompted a change in direction.

With little hope of world title opportunities elsewhere in the boxing world, the move to super-welterweight was probably her only option in the immediate future. And it comes with the prospect of a big unification fight in 2023. Harper says she has unfinished business with Jonas. Three years on, could we finally get that long-awaited rematch? Even if Harper wins, I have my doubts. The ship could well have sailed on that return fight, sunk beyond repair.

Harper is 1/3 to beat Rankin. But the 3-1 you can get on the champion retaining her titles are not without hope. Harper is only one fight removed from that crushing devastating defeat to Baumgardner, and Saturday night is her first entry into a brand new world. Rankin could be getting the Yorkshire fighter at just the right time. Are the demons from what Baumgardner did to her really extinguished? Harper has most certainly gained weight and muscle, but it carries risk. Harper looks stronger but will it be at the expense of speed and stamina. Rankin will hope it does.

The odds heavily indicate Harper will win, and that in truth is the more likely outcome. But Rankin is very much a live underdog. Harper will look to start fast, and if she gets ahead on the cards, she will be very hard to catch. And beat. Rankin is the fighter who badly needs a good start.

Rankin needs to use her physicality from the opening seconds. Despite the weight gain from her opponent, Rankin is surely the stronger fighter, the more natural super-welterweight. But Harper may prove even that theory wrong. In many ways, Rankin is up against it.

The odds are a little unfair on Rankin, who deserves a bit more respect from many that are in and around the fight. Harper needs the win more than she will probably tell herself. If she loses it could be a very long road back for her. Rankin is in a similar position herself. Another loss on the big stage might come with no return visit. Both camps have gambled. And we get a very good fight as a result. Very much a fight where the winner takes it all.

The two-time world champion came into the sport to see how far she could go. And she has come a very long way. The fight with Harper will tell us if the journey carries on or will be stopped in its tracks.

Both know what’s at stake on Saturday night. Despite being the betting favourite, there are still certain unknowns about Harper. The weight factor is her newly found confidence real or an act of false bravado. Timing is everything in boxing, it could favour Rankin in Nottingham.

Motivated by many things, including the disrespect of sparring footage and contract details being leaked, Rankin could be inspired to reduce the odds to her favour. Those 3-1 odds on Rankin are very tempting. Harper will likely navigate her way through any periods of danger to have her hand raised after 10 engrossing rounds. But Rankin has been written off before, and it would be incredibly foolish to do so again.

Photo Credit: Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing