Canelo vs Golovkin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Canelo vs Golovkin: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Gennadiy Golovkin enters this weekend’s trilogy showcase against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez riding out the last fight on his DAZN contract. But it could be the end of so much more.

Golovkin is now approaching middle age, and with his prime almost certainly long since gone, he could be entering a boxing ring for the final time. Alvarez has threatened to punish Golovkin, stop him, and in the process end the career of his long-time rival, and maybe his only true equal. But equal doesn’t even cover it.

The Mexican might well carry resentment that many argue he was a more than fortunate winner in their second meeting. And even more fortuitous to escape with a draw when the two modern-day middleweight greats first tested their skills against each other. But that is the reality. On both occasions, more so in their first fight, the judges saved him. Remember Adalaide Byrd’s scorecard of 118-110, she gave Golovkin only two rounds. There is subjective and something else.

For all the many attributes Alvarez brings, and they are plenty, he is a protected fighter in many ways. The old adage that used to, and in fairness, still applies in the not always Noble Art, that you have to knock someone out to get a draw, could legitimately be thrown at Alvarez.

Even in his two defeats, against Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol, fights he clearly lost, the judges did their best to rewrite the truth. Make no mistake, Alvarez lost both fights beyond any reasonable doubt. One judge gave Alvarez a draw against Mayweather, and the Bivol fight was far too close a call.

Unless he thoroughly dominates Alvarez, and even that might be enough, Golovkin is highly unlikely to have his hand raised if as seems likely, the fight goes the full 12 rounds. It is a fight Golovkin has little or no chance of winning. He will believe his trip to ‘Sin City’ will be a little more rewarding this time. But the Vegas roulette wheel is often stacked in favour of the house. Golovkin knows that better than most.

Time and much more are against Golovkin. At 40, the peak has gone, and with his fading skills obvious to everyone, the trilogy will finally be completed because of that. Alvarez is good, he’s very good, but too many times in his career the dice have been rolled heavily in his favour. It appears we are here again.

While suggestions that Alvarez has levelled out, if not yet in regress mode, carry more than a hint of truth, he is still on the right side of his prime. The end to their often bitter and personal rivalry has just come too late in the day for Golovkin. And is almost certainly the reason we are here.

Golovkin is now slower, much more hittable, and if what we saw a few years ago wasn’t enough to convince the ones that deliver the verdict. It almost certainly won’t be enough this time. The signs of decay have been apparent since even the 2016 fight with Kell Brook. Six years on they are now in full view.

Alvarez at 32, now seems to fight with an overreliance on power, and a need to conserve his gas tank, he has in truth, become a touch methodical and predictable. If still formidable. But this version is probably with a belief that he will get the benefit of the doubt in any close rounds. A hint of confidence and arrogance. There is that aura about Alvarez, that for many reasons, is hard to beat.

Two heavyweights aside, he is undoubtedly the biggest star in boxing today. Alvarez is a true global phenomenon. A genuine superstar of his time. There is a cynical side at times to his matchmaking, but his resume, on the whole, speaks for itself. But is he now as good as he will get? Or is it a little bit more?

You can partly attribute his recent loss at light-heavyweight to Bivol as to being in a weight division he doesn’t belong. And maybe a flirtation with veganism, which has now been partially adjusted. But I wonder if it is a sign of something else. After 61 fights, the decline is coming. It might already be here. But Golovkin is unlikely to give us the answer if Alvarez is feeling the effects of a long career.

Golovkin talks about giving us one last great performance, and with the undisputed motivation and feelings of injustice lingering from their first two meetings, he may very well give us something we have no right to expect. But whatever version we get, despite how inspired he might be, it still probably won’t be enough in Las Vegas this weekend.

Alvarez undisputed at super-middleweight, where the trilogy will end on Saturday night, is taking Golovkin out of his comfort zone. The IBF middleweight king moves up, and maybe out, if as expected Alvarez beats him. The first two meetings in 2017 and 2018 were controversial, but nevertheless, they were still very much classics of the modern era. It is bordering on the criminal we’ve had to wait so long for the final act, that could be less than fitting.

It could be the last goodbye of a fighter who could have competed in any era. In his own time, he was avoided and underappreciated. Golovkin lacked the justice he deserved against Alvarez the previous two times, and third time lucky seems remote. With a failed PED test from Alvarez after the first meeting thrown in for good measure, Golovkin will always feel he was robbed in more ways than one. Alvarez cited tainted meat. But is he just tainted?

Golovkin will give as much as his ageing body will allow. And probably a little bit more. He might even make it far more competitive than Team Alvarez expect. Or want. But it won’t be enough. I wouldn’t totally rule out Alvarez stopping a brave but exhausted Golovkin in the later rounds, but the Mexican will probably have to settle for a points win. This time without the controversy of the first two fights.

Photo Credit: Matchroom Boxing