UFC 278 Preview & Prediction: Usman vs Edwards

UFC 278 Preview & Prediction: Usman vs Edwards

By Cathal Geeney

Kamaru Usman will look to make it six successive UFC welterweight title defences as he rematches Leon Edwards in Salt Lake City to headline UFC 278.

The two last met in December 2015 when Kamaru ran out as a pretty comfortable winner by unanimous decision. While Edwards started off strong, the pressure from Usman was relentless and the Jamaican-born fighter could not prevent the takedowns of his opponent. Seven years is a long time however, and both fighters have shown plenty of growth since this encounter.

Usman is primarily a grappler. He comes from an extensive wrestling background, having become an NCAA Division II champion and trained in the United States Olympic Training Centre before transitioning to MMA. Leon Edwards was only Usman’s eight professional MMA fight and so it is no surprise that he relied so heavily on his wrestling.

The Nigerian Nightmare has since picked up thirteen consecutive victories and has become abundantly more confident with his striking. Of his last five wins, three have come by stoppage due to strikes. This included one of the knockouts of the year against Jorge Masvidal as well as breaking Colby Covington’s jaw in their first meeting.

It is going to be very interesting to see how Usman looks to approach this rematch. If he will look to dominate with his wrestling and top control or if he will be more confident standing and exchanging with Edwards.

If I were Edwards, I would be hoping for the latter. The Jamaican-born fighter has great kickboxing skills, switching stances fluently, and likes to throw nasty elbows. While Usmans striking has certainly improved dramatically in recent years, he can still be a little bit wild and unorthodox at times. This is where Rocky will see an opportunity to exploit his opponent.

The main threat from Usman will likely come from his high-pressure wrestling style. While Edwards is a very capable grappler in his own right, having secured seven takedowns in his last three outings without getting taken to the mat himself, the constant advances from Usman can be relentless. Leon will know that he can stop a takedown and he can work from the clinch,  but the real challenge will be getting the respect of Usman, to the point where he starts to think twice before working for a takedown.

One criticism of Edwards is his lack of knockout power. Although he is supremely calm in the  cage, he can be too composed instead of going after that finish. Of his last ten wins, only two have come by stoppage. This does not bode well against Usman, as many feel that it will take a stoppage of some sort in order to dethrone the reigning 170-pound champion.

And while he will enter the octagon as the underdog, Edwards will not be fazed by this. The Birmingham native has overcome much bigger odds to be in the position he is in today. The thirty-year-old has spoken openly in the past about his difficult upbringing, surrounded by poverty in Jamaica before emigrating to England where he lost his father to gun violence a number of years later. The title challenger is now an advocate against knife violence in the UK in addition to his career as a martial artist.

If Leon Edwards can implement his own crisp, striking game while negating the wrestling of Usman, there is every chance that the UK will have their second ever UFC champion.

Prediction:

I am intrigued as to how this fight will play out. I feel the clinch could be a very decisive factor and if Edwards enjoys success here, it may well be the determining factor of this bout.

With that being said, it is difficult to pick against Kamaru Usman as the number one athlete in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings. He has been tested throughout his career and shown an ability to prevail over any adversity he has been presented with. While I am a big fan of Edwards, and I can see how he could make this a thrilling showdown, I will have to take Usman to make it sixteen straight wins inside the UFC cage.

Photo Credit: UFC/Zuffa