Usyk vs Joshua 2: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Usyk vs Joshua 2: Big Fight Preview & Prediction

Too many voices from outside the first time around. Indecision of many things. The rematch this weekend might be decided by the voices of doubt from within. There is a real sense that Anthony Joshua will find a way to lose and Oleksandr Usyk will find a way to win. It might be that simple.

Joshua got it wrong. And badly. Tactics that defied belief. Boxing to orders rather than with belief. Some who have departed will have paid the price for their wisdom. Or lack of it. The former two-time heavyweight champion of the world can not get it wrong again. But will it even matter what Joshua does? Usyk might just have his number.

A different setting will decide the heavyweight champion of the world. Forget the baubles on offer. Forget even Tyson Fury and his many retirements. Fake or not, the Fury show is getting tiresome. Embarrassing even. How many times do you have to retire before the WBC strip you? Usyk vs Joshua should be for undisputed status. The WBC belt should be on the line on Saturday and return some semblance of sanity to a sport bamboozled and surrounded by the ridiculous. And worse.

The decision to return to Saudi territory is partly defended by words that other sports do the exact same thing. The dollar over principal. All involved could very easily ignore the rest and do what’s right. They could go elsewhere and still make enough money and go home happy. Very happy. Sometimes enough is enough. In many ways. Getting better doesn’t make it right. Recent unsettling and deeply disturbing headlines make defending the decision to take the fight to Jeddah a tough sell. An impossible one even.

But strip away, forget even, and sometimes you have to, the unsavory, there is a world heavyweight title fight that is full of intrigue and risk. Especially for Joshua.

There will also be nerves and plenty of them from the money men that surround Joshua. Armed with a new long-time deal with DAZN, which begins in earnest the second the fight ends on Saturday, there is far more on the line than winning back his world heavyweight titles. Make no mistake, Joshua is an important part of the Matchroom/DAZN future, maybe even pivotal to it. If Joshua loses again, and this time more definitively, the future of many things will be far less certain.

Joshua has made changes to his inner circle, and will beyond any reasonable doubt, make changes to his fighting style also. He will be more aggressive, hoping his natural physical advantages will be the deciding factor this time. The changes might be a little more subtle than some will demand, but Joshua will look to hurt and not box. The new man at the helm, Robert Garcia, might just be what he needs for redemption.

It might be a little too simplistic to suggest Joshua only has a puncher’s chance. But that assumption might not be that far off the mark. With a distinctly suspect chin and gas tank to match, the more Joshua advances the greater the danger he is in. The chances of being caught by something he is unable to recover from increases, and the likelihood his stamina fades away beyond repair.

The British heavyweight has struggled to find his way since Wladimir Klitschko took away plenty from Joshua in 2017. Still the best win on the record of Joshua. The cheerleaders will boast about his incredible resume. Another great boxing myth. In a sport of many. In truth, Joshua, through no fault of his own, has been denied legacy fights with Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder. Wins over either would seriously have elevated his credentials. Those fights still may come, but his resume lacks somewhat without them. Joshua is a good heavyweight, nothing more, in a field of the largely ordinary.

But if Joshua can somehow win on Saturday night, he will quite rightly deserve every plaudit that will come his way. Despite what some may say, the former undisputed cruiserweight king is no ordinary southpaw. If Joshua beats him. He deserves the credit for doing so. Usyk erased doubts about his own heavyweight credentials in the first fight with Joshua. The rematch I think will prove a little more.

Even in victory, Joshua has raised doubts. And many of them. A fighter at his most vulnerable when he is seemingly on the ascendancy. A fault that could be his undoing against Usyk. The look of a fighter caught between styles. The loss to Andy Ruiz put doubts that may never go away. The rematch did little to dispel the rumours of fragility about Joshua.

Ruiz did a ‘Buster’ Douglas and didn’t bother to show up in anywhere near resembling fighting shape, and made it easy for Joshua. But Joshua still looked as though he was on the verge of falling apart mentally. Usyk won’t give Joshua the luxury that Ruiz gave him.

But Usyk has had his own battles since their first meeting last September. The true horrors of the Russian invasion of his home country are unimaginable except to those who have experienced it first hand. Usyk has. It could take something away from the Ukrainian. Only as the fight unfolds will we really know what version of Usyk we will get.

If Usyk (19-0) turns up ready for battle, which I suspect will be the case, make no mistake, Joshua is in for an incredibly hard night. The more aggressive tactics from Joshua could very well be his undoing. And more definitively than last time. Joshua might be better. But even that might be enough. People forget that Usyk can improve also. We might well see a side to the Ukrainian we haven’t yet seen.

But it would be extremely foolish to completely write off the chances of Joshua. One punch might be all he needs. Remember, he wasn’t without success in the first meeting.

But the punching power of the current champion shouldn’t be underestimated either. Usyk hurt Joshua in the 3rd round and very nearly stopped an exhausted Joshua in the final round. Regardless of who wins, the judges are unlikely to be needed. It won’t go 12 rounds.

Joshua (24-2) is the fighter who desperately needs a good start. Usyk you feel might have a little more time to cement his way into the fight. But the early segments will be where Usyk is in the most danger. The Chess moves of last time will be replaced by blood and thunder. Usyk will almost certainly have to experience a lot more discomfort this time.

I expect Joshua will look to be more assertive from the opening seconds, and Usyk will look to navigate the more treacherous waters with minimum discomfort. But equally, he will look to inflict enough doubt, and pain, from the get-go. Don’t be surprised if it is Joshua who will face imminent peril first.

I think it will be relatively close early before Usyk gradually takes control as the fight enters the middle rounds. Joshua will have a moment in those nervy crucial early exchanges. How big a moment he has, will determine who wins. Joshua will need some semblance of success. And quickly.

But I just feel Usyk will ride out the early storm to steadily take over. The stamina will slowly fade, and Joshua will find himself in the kind of deep waters that will drown him somewhere in the final third of the contest. There are just too many doubts surrounding Joshua. Usyk is the one with by far the better boxing IQ, the more natural boxer. And I believe he will prove once and for all that he is the better fighter.