UFC 247: The Conway Predictions

UFC 247: The Conway Predictions

The UFC touches down in Houston this weekend and brings with it a championship double-header.

The UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones defends the belt against the undefeated Dominick Reyes and the UFC flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will put her title on the line against UFC veteran Katlyn Chookagian.

The Predictions:

Jones vs. Reyes

It’s easy to underappreciate greatness over time. Win after win, dominant victory after dominant victory, breathtaking innovation after insurmountable superlatives galore, it’s easy to not fully understand what Jon Jones has done throughout the course of his career.

Since turning pro in 2008, Jon Jones has gone 26-0 (1 NC). That’s obviously incorrect. He’s actually 25-1 (1 NC) with his lone loss being a disqualification defeat at the hands of Matt Hamill, a fight where he was dominating every aspect except for a ten second period where he didn’t correctly throw some elbows.

It’s important to frame the argument as him being undefeated though. He’s gone well over a decade without tasting defeat. Nobody in the cage, has ever been able to say they’ve gotten the better of him. The only person whose even had a judge say they won a fight was Thiago Santos in Jones’ last fight where the champ retained the belt via split decision.

Here’s a little perspective—Fedor Emelianenko went 31-1 (1 NC) from 2000-2009. Anderson Silva’s undefeated streak in the UFC lasted from 2007-2013. That’s nine years and six years respectively.

Jon Jones’ run is at almost 12 years.

It’s unprecedented.

He’s defeated eight men who’ve held a title in a major MMA organization. His 2011 run included stoppage wins over Ryan Bader (current Bellator double champ), Shogun Rua (former UFC champion and 2005 Pride FC Grand Prix champion), Rampage Jackson (former UFC champ) and Lyoto Machida (former UFC champ).

He’s amassed long layoffs due to his own transgressions, which can entirely be held against him if you want to, but regardless of that time off came back just as dominant as ever, defeating ring rust just as effortlessly as most human opponents.

With all that written above, I still can’t shake the feeling that this is the moment.

I can’t believe I’m going to type this. It’s illogical. It isn’t based in any sort of fight technique or breakdown. It’s purely based on the always reliable theory that the MMA gods always get the last laugh.

This feels like the moment where Jon Jones has everything going against him and the whole world comes crashing down inside the cage.

Right around the time when fighters and the people around them begin talking about grand plans beyond the fight at hand, is exactly the moment the sick MMA gods rear their ugly heads.

Remember when Ronda Rousey starting getting movie roles, when Anderson Silva turned into a Matrix character against Stephan Bonnar, when Fedor began his American campaign and the Brock Lesnar fight talk was at its highest?

Yeah, we’ve reached that point with Jon Jones.

Talks of fights with heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and middleweight champ Israel Adesanya have been all the rage this week. Talks that Reyes is a scrub who doesn’t deserve the shot have been wildly overblown by fans.

On paper, Jones has no reason to think he can’t beat Reyes. He’s the better wrestler, striker and athlete. He has all the intangibles. He has the coaching and experience. He’s got the pedigree and he’s basically been built for this in every conceivable way.

But I just have this feeling. Can’t shake it.

It’s time.

Dominick Reyes is going to shock the world, ruin all the plans and take out Jon Jones Saturday night.

Look for Reyes to set up his striking attacks with leg kicks. He’s got surprisingly good timing and uses it to find his range early in fights. He doesn’t have great takedown defense, Jones should be able to get him down. But he doesn’t settle and rarely lets his back rest on the mat.

I don’t have any real analysis other than everyone gets caught and Reyes’ has more than enough power to put Jones down. I’ll pick Jones in the rematch. But I’m picking Reyes the first time.

Shevchenko vs. Chookagian

I have real bad news, this fight is going to suck.

Shevchenko is an otherworldly talent. However, she is also too smart to be reckless for our entertainment.

Chookagian has never been an overly aggressive fighter. She relies on fighting from kicking range, and often fights a beat outside of that range which keeps her safe, but also outside a comfortable distance to do her own damage.

Shevchenko will gladly let Chookagian play the long game and is explosive enough to hop in, do her damage and get out. She’ll win round after round on the feet if she chooses.

Our best bet for a finish is if Shevchenko decides to use her ground game.

It’s pretty basic, but she can hit a single leg on a Chookagian kick and take her down if she wants. From there her athleticism will take over and it wouldn’t surprise me if she went for a submission.

But I think even on the ground she’ll play it safe. She’s better than Chookagian in ever way, including not allowing herself to be put in unnecessary danger.

I’m picking Shevchenko in a drawn out five round decision.