The Conway Prediction: McGregor vs Cerrone

The Conway Prediction: McGregor vs Cerrone

By Alex Conway

The long-awaited return of Conor McGregor is upon is.

The Irishman takes on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in the main event of a welterweight contest between two combatants attempting to make a title run at lightweight.

A lot of the focus has been on what McGregor has done outside the cage since his failed bid to win the lightweight crown from Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2018.

Many pundits look at his antics as an indication that he’s lost the focus and drive that propelled him to his heyday from 2013-2016. His fans have looked at any and everything to give them hope that he can get things back on track, and in fairness, McGregor has done a lot of media recently to kindle that hope.

In the press conference, McGregor and Cerrone exchanged basically nothing but pleasantries. McGregor has taken a calm measured approach to every interview he’s done where he’s assured everyone that this is a way better camp than the Khabib camp. He hasn’t (gasp) had any alcohol, he’s on a more rigid schedule and he has laid out his long-term plans for 2020.

I don’t think any of that is going to matter for this fight. While I respect Cerrone’s skills tremendously and what he’s done for the sport, this feels like a fight tailored made for McGregor.

Cerrone is a slow starter while McGregor is a fast starter. Cerrone has a ground game, but likely won’t push the issue to get it there, keeping him on the feet where the fight is even at best, and at worst, wholly in McGregor’s favor.

Cerrone has a record amount of fights in the UFC, but all that wear and tear has worn his chin down to the worst it has ever been. There is no shame in getting knocked out by Justin Gaethje, but having said that, his first-round knockout to Gaethje in September felt like something a little different.

He didn’t get caught, he got touched on the chin. Gaethje is not a surgical striker, McGregor at full stamina is.

McGregor’s game gets simplified as a man with just a left hand. That is absurd. His left hand is more like a Mortal Kombat finishing move, but it’s far from his only weapon.

His teep kicks to the body seem like an obvious kryptonite to Cerrone. “Cowboy” has had notorious struggles with handling body attacks.

McGregor is also adept at creating angles using footwork and leans. He has a nice lead uppercut, a decent right hook. His combinations were never more on display than against Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205.

I don’t anticipate that Cerrone will do the things necessary to extend this fight and tire out McGregor. If he does he’s got a shot, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

In my head, McGregor is going to overwhelm Cerrone early, getting into his body and taking away the range Cerrone needs to throw his most dangerous weapon, his kicks.

Eventually McGregor is going to find Cerrone’s chin and I don’t think it’ll take many shots to put him out.

I’m going McGregor with the first-round technical knockout.