Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Ruiz Jr vs Joshua 2

Big Fight Preview & Prediction: Ruiz Jr vs Joshua 2

You didn’t need all those crazy conspiracy theories that followed to know something was wrong with Anthony Joshua back in June.

The massage administered to Joshua in the ring was just bizarre, even then I wondered if something was in the air, he just didn’t seem ready for battle.

Joshua plain and simple wasn’t up for it, he had no fear, he wasn’t switched on, he wasn’t focused and he paid the ultimate price. But it wasn’t just in the mind that cost Joshua, the in-ring frailties that he has gotten away with previously, ultimately cost Joshua in New York.

In previous fights against Dillian Whyte and Wladimir Klitschko, Joshua went in for the finish when seemingly it was there for the taking, but ended up forgetting about his own defence and getting badly hurt himself. Against Whyte and Klitschko he survived, against Ruiz he didn’t.

There have always been certain vulnerabilities about Joshua, be it his stiffness, his chin, his stamina, but Ruiz brutally exposed them all in one night.

Joshua goes over way too easily, and even before that explosive 3rd round at the MSG, the signs were there that Ruiz might just have his number.

Ruiz never got the credit he deserved, whatever Joshua did wrong, we shouldn’t forget what Ruiz did right. Ruiz executed the perfect gameplan, inside and outside of the ring. The be friendly persona either by design or default served its purpose and took away Joshua’s edge.

The worrying signs continued after the fight, he seemed to accept defeat rather too easily, and in his subsequent interview with Anna Woolhouse, I got out of it denial, a lack of conviction in his words, a failure to accept what needed to be done.

But questions need to be asked about Ruiz also, was that his career-high moment, his dream fulfilled.

It is logical to think that with a full camp Ruiz should improve from the first fight and maybe defeat Joshua even more emphatically. But I wonder if he can raise himself again, will the hunger be the same, or will a different type of hunger be his undoing.

But there is little doubt that it is Joshua who needs to improve, if we see the same, we get the same result.

The defeat to Ruiz was so devastating that the demons of that defeat will be hard to eradicate. Ruiz might just be all wrong for him, the speed of hand and foot advantage Ruiz has will be hard to negate. Joshua even now says 9 times out of 10 he beats Ruiz, I’m not so sure.

Last time Ruiz was 14-1, now he is around 2-1, Joshua is still odds on to get his revenge, but even the bookies are not fully convinced, and neither am I.

Ruiz should certainly be better prepared for Joshua than he was in New York, he got just 5 weeks to get ready for Joshua.

But worryingly for those betting on Ruiz, he has come in over a stone heavier for the rematch. Has Ruiz followed the ‘Buster’ Douglas model following a shock world heavyweight title victory.

Weight issues aside, tactically I don’t see Ruiz changing too much for the rematch, on what we saw last time he doesn’t need to.

But Joshua needs to change, mentally and physically, but can he. Joshua has slimmed down considerably, speed and movement the key to victory perhaps, or so they hope. The signs seem encouraging, at least on the surface.

Talk of Joshua making a statement worries me, he just needs to win, he has to win, but can he.

Joshua has to be patient, resist the urge to go for the finish even if he hurts or drops Ruiz again. I don’t see Joshua winning early, it might have to be a points victory if he wants to regain his world heavyweight titles.

The 14-1 odds in June were insulting and unrealistic, Ruiz was always much better than that. Eddie Hearn said Joshua was in total control until he got sloppy in the first fight, but it wasn’t that simple, the alarm bells were ringing all night long.

Ruiz is more than capable of repeating, but Joshua now knows the level of the challenge Ruiz poses, the surprise factor isn’t there now.

I think back to Carl Froch and George Groves, a flat Froch didn’t fear Groves in the first fight but he put it right in the rematch. I see a similar scenario here, but nevertheless a Joshua win is still far from guaranteed.

Another loss and Joshua is probably done, despite being the challenger he is the one facing all the pressure, and that could be the difference, a relaxed confident champion could do exactly the same as he did in the first fight.

Picking a winner isn’t easy by any means, I am extremely tempted to pick Ruiz to do it again. People keep saying Joshua is the better athlete, bigger and stronger, maybe, but is he the better boxer, he certainly wasn’t in New York.

But Joshua seems have to made positive changes in mind and body, and that I believe will be the difference in the rematch.

Joshua might have to go the boring route, using his reach advantage, thudding the jab home with authority but still taking the opportunity to throw power shots when the opening to do so is there, he very quickly needs to make Ruiz respect his power, put doubt where it wasn’t before.

But if he tries to force it, I see the same result, patience and discipline are definitely required.

I think Joshua can get his revenge, but I say that with very little confidence. Every time Ruiz gets into range, there will be imminent danger for the former champion.

Joshua will have to be content with winning rounds, staying out of danger, softening Ruiz up. I wouldn’t totally rule out a late stoppage, but more likely I see Joshua riding out the odd scare along the way to prevail on points.