The Conway UFC Predictions: Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal

The Conway UFC Predictions: Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal

By Alex Conway

Is everyone prepared to hear people say some bad words on television and giggle about it?  Well, if not you’re in for a long night because the BMF belt is on the line in New York from the famous Madison Square Garden Arena.

Street Jesus and the kid from Stockton will lock horns when Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz square up in the City that Never Sleeps.

The Rock and the President of the United States will both be cageside, and the event has so much buzz that even Canelo-Kovalev won’t event attempt to kick off their main event until the final punch has been thrown inside an Octagon, a shake-up in the hierarchy of combat sports that few ever thought they’d see in this lifetime.

But despite all the theatrics surrounding this enormous event, the fight will still be a fight and what we do here, is break it down and make a prediction.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz

Does the title of the fight mean that mean nobody can shoot for a takedown? Is grappling up for discussion? What about a good point fight on the feet? How technical are we allowed to be? Do the combatants have to stand in the center of the cage and bang?

Both fighters are excellent grapplers, with Masvidal showing off his defensive prowess against Demian Maia in 2017 and Diaz having a decades worth of offensive submission wins on his resume.

Historically, Masvidal has been the guy more likely to get into a boring fight. Despite his current two-fight win-streak where he’s won both fights via knockout against Darren Till and Ben Askren, he’s also the same guy that got a reputation as a split decision king.

At times he hasn’t gotten out of first gear, allowed his opponent to gain a lead, and been unable to climb out of a deficit and instead settled for not getting finished.
Diaz has never played that game.

The Californian has only been knocked out once in his UFC career, against Josh Thomson in 2013, but he has let his lack of game plan ruin his night.  Masvidal is the superior strategist and would be my bet to win a decision.

I have a hunch that we will certainly see grappling in this fight. I expect that Diaz will clinch with Masvidal, but the Miami native will be too strong to get taken down. Masvidal has a takedown defense rating of 77% while Diaz is only successful on 42% of his takedowns.

I don’t anticipate that Masvidal will go for many takedowns against Diaz because Diaz has one of the best offensive guards in the lightweight or welterweight divisions. Why would he take him to one of the few areas that either guy has a distinct advantage?

Because he’s a bad MF? Maybe.

I think it’s much more likely that when he can, Masvidal will keep it on the feet, at distance and get Diaz to fight him at kickboxing range. On the feet both fighters land at roughly the same clip, 4.17 significant strikes per minute for Masvidal and 4.71 per minute for Diaz.

Defensively is where it begins to separate. Masvidal defends at a 67% rate for significant strikes per minute, while Diaz is only at 54%.

Essentially, Masvidal is better at hitting and not getting hit.

Which means if Masvidal matches Diaz’s aggression, this should be his fight to win. He’s the bigger man, more acclimated to the welterweight weight class, and is the statistically superior striker who can dictate the terms of the fight by keeping it on the fight.

The only question is, will he lead the dance?

I think he’s tapped into his full potential in 2019 and thus, I’m picking Masvidal to win a fun five-round decision victory.