The Conway UFC Predictions: Shevchenko vs Carmouche

The Conway UFC Predictions: Shevchenko vs Carmouche

By Alex Conway

UFC flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko makes a quick turnaround to fight a former foe in top challenger Liz Carmouche. A co-main event between two of the heaviest hitters in the welterweight division sees Vicente Luque taking on Mike Perry.

The UFC’s debut in Uruguay isn’t littered with star power so we’re going to focus on the two fights at the top of the card.

Shevchenko vs. Carmouche

I’m not picking Carmouche to win the fight but let me make the case for how she could do it.

For starters, Carmouche is one of the strongest female fighters on the roster. When she gets a hold of her opponents, it’s something they really struggle with.

Carmouche first displayed this strength in her historical debut with Ronda Rousey. She was able to quickly take the hall-of-famer’s back and secure a neck crank that almost ended the Rousey rocket ship before it got off the ground.

Rousey was obviously able to shake off the submission and eventually secure an armbar finish, but the fight has had a lasting impression for years.

Carmouche is 2-1 in the UFC’s flyweight division with only a split decision loss to Alexis Davis blemishing her record.

Shevchenko isn’t a bad grappler, in fact offensively she’s quite good. But when I think about her at her most vulnerable it was against Amanda Nunes in their first encounter. Shevchenko spent a lot of time on the bottom getting pounded on, and I would argue Carmouche is a more ferocious grappler and capable of putting Shevchenko in bad spots down there.

For Carmouche to fully capitalize down there, she needs to stay out of Shevchenko’s guard. If she can pass to half guard and ride a leg, that seems like where she can do her most work, whether it’s controlling and winning minutes of rounds, or posturing up to try and inflict damage, even at the risk of losing position.

On the feet this fight will be a struggle for Carmouche. While she doesn’t’ have bad stand-up, Shevchenko’s distance management and vision is top notch. Jessica Eye was barely able to touch Shevchenko in June.

Shevchenko doesn’t waste a lot of movement on the feet. She’s constantly coiled and ready to move her head slightly to one inch or another, slide her foot just out of range, or unleash a vicious kick with no set-up or wind-up.

She doesn’t utilize a ton of feints. Shevchenko just has excellent command of distance and when she’s ready to strike, she pulls the trigger. This can often lead to moments in the fight where she appears hesitant or not much action is happening, but it’s because she’s perfectly calibrating.

While I think there will be moments in the fight where Carmouche appears to be winning the grappling exchanges, I think over a five-round fight Shevchenko will get off enough offense on the feet to win a unanimous decision on the judge’s scorecards.

Luque vs. Perry

Remember when we talked about Leon Edwards as a guy that the greater audience just didn’t understand how good they were? Vicente Luque is in this category as well.

He’s a heavy hitter with good submission skills, technical boxing and a penchant for finding ways to win under most circumstances.

He got off to a slow start in his overall career, but since entering the UFC he’s 9-2 with his only two losses being against Edwards and Michael Graves in his debut. His nine wins have all come via finish and he’s currently riding a five-fight winning streak.

He does get hit a lot and that could be problem against Mike Perry. Luque isn’t rangy and doesn’t posses a great jab, two things that have given Perry trouble in the past.

Perry likes to throw bombs. He’s shown moments of sophistication in his striking for brief periods, such as his fight against Paul Felder which may have been his best performance. But for the most part, he winds up and looks to unleash.

This should play into the more technical Luque’s advantage and should result in a win for the Brazilian. But it’s hard to ever truly discount Perry’s one-hitter quitter abilities.

I’m going Luque in this fight because I think he’s world’s better on the ground. I doubt the fight ends up there, but if it does, I think Luque notches another submission win on his ledger.