The Conway UFC Predictions

The Conway UFC Predictions

By Alex Conway

The UFC keeps chugging along, this time stopping in San Antonio where welterweights Rafael dos Anjos and Leon Edwards will headline, Greg Hardy makes his third Octagon appearance and a slew of other good fights will take place.

RDA vs. Edwards

There is a unique process for developing non-American prospects in the UFC. Let’s take a look at Leon Edwards, a British fighter for example.

Often they will make their debut fighting in Europe and depending on their success, the UFC will rely on them to help bolster shows in that area.

Eventually the UFC will allow them to branch out beyond just their little corner of the Earth and we’ve already seen that once with Edwards when he defeated Donald Cerrone in a main event fight in Singapore back in 2018.

This isn’t even Edwards’ first fight in America (he lost to current welterweight champ Kamaru Usman in Orlando in 2015), but it sure does feel like his introduction to mainstream American audiences.

Edwards is on a seven-fight win streak featuring wins over Cerrone, Gunnar Nelson, Bryan Barberen and Vicente Luque. But dos Anjos will be the highest ranked and toughest challenge to date.

It’s entirely plausible that Edwards beats the former lightweight champion. He’s handled himself well against Nelson, who I would argue is a better grappler than RDA, and I’d give the slight advantage on the feet to Edwards over RDA.

But dos Anjos has a ton of experience, is a more physical force inside the cage and has faced the most elite competition you’ll ever see. Dos Anjos’ UFC victories include Kevin Lee, Cerrone (2X), Robbie Lawler, Anthony Pettis, Nate Diaz and Benson Henderson among many others.

He’s one of the greatest lightweights in MMA history and is clearly one of the better welterweights in the game today.
He uses a pressure style of fighting, preferring to fight coming forward using crisp boxing to set up one of the best kicking attacks in the UFC. Against top wrestlers he struggles with getting taken down and held down.

But noted wrestler Lee was unable to keep him down and eventually dos Anjos was able to secure an arm-triangle choke in the fourth round for the win.

Edwards will likely spend most of this contest fighting off his back foot, something he did well against Nelson in his last fight. But RDA has more impact in his strikes than Nelson and could wear down Edwards over five-rounds much easier than Nelson could over three.

I see this being a close fight with RDA and Edwards being fairly even during striking exchanges, but RDA doing enough to control the grappling to win the fight on the judge’s scorecards.

Oleinik vs. Harris

Interesting that this is the co-main event when the more popular fight between Greg Hardy and Juan Adams is right before it, but nonetheless a very intriguing heavyweight co-headlines this card.

Alexsei Oleinik is constantly underrated and it really isn’t until he’s on your television screen, tangled up with his opponent in a grappling exchange that you remember just how dangerous and skilled he is down there.

Harris is woefully underprepared to fight Oleinik on the mat, as evidenced by his poor showing against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 216. Granted Harris got only a couple hours notice before facing the former champ, but still. It looked like Werdum had activated a cheat code to get that submission so easily.

On the feet this fight is where Harris should have a shot to win, but even there Oleinik is better than most think he is. He eventually got knocked out by Alistair Overeem, but he was giving him hard punches in the clinch against the noted striker, and Oleinik also has a big knockout win over Jared Rosholt on his resume also.

I’m picking Harris despite a nagging feeling that it’s the wrong call.

I simply believe that Oleinik is showing signs of wear and tear at 42-years old and with 70 MMA fights on his record. Harris is a big puncher and if he keeps it on the feet, I think he’s able to put Oleinik away, but it’ll need to be early.

The longer this fight goes, the worse it’ll be for Harris.

Hardy vs. Adams

This seems like a step-up for Greg Hardy in competition and truth be told, it is. Juan Adams is a better fighter than Allen Crowder or Dmitry Smolyakov, but he’s also inexperienced himself.

Adams only has six fights on his ledger and is coming off his first professional loss, although that was a fight I scored for Adams.

In a lot of ways this is a mirror match. Both fighters hit hard, both weighed in at 266 pounds and move really well at such a heavy weight, and both are young in their fighting careers.

But I think Adams has the better skill set. He’s devoted more of his life as a fighter and Hardy hasn’t shown me that he has much of a second or third game plan is he doesn’t blow his opponents out of the water with punches within seconds.
I’m going with Adams by knockout here.

Vick vs. Hooker

Dan Hooker suffered his first UFC lightweight loss in December against Edson Barboza. His bounce back fight is against a Texan fighting in Texas when he takes on James Vick on Saturday.

I’m going with Hooker here because something tells me we may have reached the upper bound limits of Vick’s potential at lightweight. Hooker moved up to lightweight when the returns from cutting to featherweight weren’t outweighing the costs, and it feels like he could be the man to make Vick realize the same about Vick’s cut to lightweight.

Vick is a huge lightweight. He’d be a huge welterweight and a decent sized middleweight also. It’s not that he has conditioning problems or lacks the skills to win here, but I think Hooker will have more in the gas tank to get the job done over three rounds.

What really fascinates me about this fight is that Hooker is often the taller fighter in his contests. He’s able to use step-up knees to control the distance in striking exchanges but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that against Vick.

I really believe this fight will come down to who can get busier faster and longer, and I believe that man will be Hooker.

Hernandez vs. Trinaldo

Francisco Trinaldo is on the short list for most underappreciated UFC fighter but he’s also 40-years old in a young man’s weight class, lightweight.

Speaking of young lightweights, enter 26-year old San Antonio native Alexander Hernandez, a young man fighting at home coming off his first UFC loss.
Hernandez has a unique movement style of striking. It’s lazy to compare it to Dominick Cruz since that’s what everyone does when someone doesn’t plod in the traditional wrestle-thai way we’re accustomed to in MMA, but he does stay light on his feet, cut sharp angles and throw strikes in odd ways and with awkward timing.

Grappling is where Trinaldo is a great test for him at this stage of his career. On the feet I believe Hernandez can win, and I’m predicting he keeps it standing long enough to put it on Trinaldo and get the W.

Arlovski vs. Rothwell

I don’t have a lot to say about this fight or a ton of technical prowess about what will dictate who wins.

I believe both fighters believe they can make a run because it’s heavyweight, old guys make runs all the time, if you hit hard you’ve always got a three-fight win streak lurking, and if you show up and play long enough eventually you’ll crack someone on the chin and double your money.

And that’s all this fight will come down. Two big dudes with tons of experience throwing as hard as they can and seeing who goes down first.

Rothwell is the better submission artist at this stage of their career, but I don’t envision him shooting a double to take Arlovski down, and if Arlovski shoots on Rothwell I don’t think he has enough athleticism to take the larger man down.

So on the feet is where this fight will take place and that’s anyone’s guess as to who gets hit first and wins.

I’ll pick Rothwell.