UFC 239 Predictions

UFC 239 Predictions

By Alex Conway

International Fight Week is upon us and with it the UFC brings a stacked UFC 239 headliner featuring UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones taking on Thiago Santos, and UFC bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes facing off with former champion Holly Holm.

The feature bout is a welterweight clash with title implications on the line between Ben Askren and Jorge Masvidal. Luke Rockhold makes his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz and in the opener, Michael Chiesa fights Diego Sanchez in a welterweight fighter featuring two former lightweight stalwarts.

Here are my UFC 239 predictions.

Jones vs. Santos

You’d be incredibly brave, dumb some might say, to pick against Jon Jones, and yet, I’m tempted in this one.

On paper, there is no reason to think that Jones isn’t superior to Santos in just about every conceivable way. Sure, you could make an argument that Santos has the cleaner Muay Thai technique, but I’d still argue that Jones’ overall stand-up game and ability to utilize a wide array of tools at different ranges is vastly better.

Plus, there is no doubt that Jones can get this fight to the ground and have his way with Santos.

But upsets don’t happen on paper. They aren’t mathematically calculated ahead of time. Sometimes they are born out of ignorance, but oftentimes MMA legends are knocked off their pedestals by the most common of circumstances…boredom.

Jones’ most spectacular performances come from moments in time where he feels he has something to prove. This is a common trait amongst highly competitive athletes.

Jones’ wins over Daniel Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson, Rashad Evans, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson are all perfect examples of him turning turbulent times and heated rivalries into devastating finishes and legacy defining wins.

But he’s coming off a win over Anthony Smith, a former middleweight like Santos, who also didn’t have a ton of hope heading into his fight with Jones.

This is the second fight in a row where it seems like there is no possible way Jones can lose, and that is exactly when a spinning heel hook or a thunderous left uppercut catches you in the face and you never see it coming.

If Jones wins, there won’t be a ton of fanfare. People won’t look at his win over Santos as a sterling accomplishment. But these are the types of fights that define a legacy.

You remember the fights against Frazier, Foreman and Liston. You probably don’t remember the Alvin Lewis, Jerry Quarry and Bob Foster fights though. Those are the land mines that Muhammad Ali avoided and winning the fights you’re supposed to win as everything is going your way is exactly what defines greatness.

I predict Jones will win, because I’m not an idiot. But when he does, I hope everyone can truly appreciate what that win means and they don’t discount it because they don’t perceive Santos as a threat. In some ways, he’s the greatest threat of Jones’ career.

Nunes vs. Holm

Speaking of greatness, Amanda Nunes is the greatest female fighter of all-time and it isn’t even close.

But I’m not picking her to win.

Holly Holm has displayed pretty remarkable takedown defense for a fighter that spent her formative years as a boxer, so I don’t think Nunes will be able to take her down easily, which is where I think Nunes’ clearest path to victory lies.

No doubt Nunes could knock Holm out. Nunes can knock anyone out.

But power doesn’t stay with you in the later rounds and I think Holm has the ability, technique and overall mental awareness to execute the game plan Valentina Shevchenko was trying to execute against Nunes at UFC 215 when the now flyweight champion fell short against Nunes via split decision.

Holm can stay on the outside and fight at range better than every woman in the 135-pound division. If she doesn’t want Nunes to hit her, I like her chances not to get hit.

Nunes surprised people with her range. She’s able to generate a ton of power from her punches even when she doesn’t connect at the optimal distance. Her leg kicks could immobilize Holm, but I don’t see that happening either because Holm’s style is heavily predicated on movement.

Nunes could catch Holm coming in, as Holm’s combinations can sometimes get overly predictable and robotic.

But I don’t know, it feels like there is a trend where fighters get right up to the moment where they are about to breakthrough to the masses, and then it all comes apart.

I’m predicting that Holm avoids the big power shot, works from behind the black lines and circles and jabs Holm to a five-round close decision win to take the title.

Askren vs. Masvidal

Go back to Masvidal’s fight with Demian Maia. I see this fight going a lot like that.
Masvidal is above average everywhere. He’s one of the most experienced guys in the game and also one of MMA’s most underrated.

But I don’t see how he stops Askren over three rounds and I don’t think he submits the former Olympian either.

Masvidal has a habit of starting slow, so I think Askren easily takes the first round. That leaves two rounds for Masvidal to take Askren out because otherwise, Askren will slowly win minute over minute with his world class wrestling and grappling expertise.

I think there might be moments of danger from Masvidal. A big strike here, a close guillotine choke there, but ultimately Askren survives and wins on points.

Blachowicz vs. Rockhold

Luke Rockhold was always the bigger man at middleweight and while he won’t be as big at light heavyweight, I still think he’ll be plenty large enough to compete.

While Rockhold won’t tower over his opponents, he’s trained with larger guys like Cormier and Cain Velasquez for years. He won’t be unaccustomed to size and I think not being drained from a huge weight cut will really bring his grappling to the forefront.

Rockhold has a scary mount. His domination of Machida and Weidman in back-to-back fights was absolutely horrifying if you were a fan of either fighter and during that run, he looked unstoppable.

I think Blachowicz has his hands full here and if Rockhold doesn’t tear him up with leg kicks on the feet, he’ll get a stoppage victory on the ground.

Rockhold for the win.

Chiesa vs. Sanchez

I’ve been a Diego Sanchez fan for years. Who isn’t? His fights are fun, he’s interesting (crazy?) outside the cage and his pre-fight walk his unintentional comedy at its highest.

But he’s too old for Chiesa, he’s too small for Chiesa and Chiesa is too motivated by the chance to add a name like Sanchez to his ledger.

I think Chiesa muscles Sanchez on the ground and gets a pretty convincing unanimous decision win in this one.