UFC 238 Predictions 

UFC 238 Predictions 

By Alex Conway 

Listen, Henry Cejudo is cringe-nado to the max. At Thursday’s media for UFC 238, he wore his gold medal, his title belt, a royal crown, some robes, brought back the snake that he slammed on the ground in the lead-up to his T.J. Dillashaw fight and also had a royal staff.

It’s all a gimmick, the only problem is I can’t actually tell if it’s intentional. Anyway…

Antics aside, you are looking at one of the best possible fights the UFC can put together, twice over, if you order UFC 238 on PPV Saturday night.

The main event bantamweight title fight features the flyweight king Cejudo moving up to fight the scariest man in the division in Marlon Moraes.

The co-main features a fellow cringe-aholic in Jessica Eye who takes on women’s flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko.

The feature bout is a can’t-miss between Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone. A title shot SHOULD be on the line (it probably isn’t though) as Ferguson and his 12-fight win streak go up against the UFC’s all-time wins leader.

Let’s make some predictions.

Cejudo vs. Moraes

Marlon Moraes is one judge’s scorecard away from being 5-0 inside the UFC, but instead he’s 4-1 with a split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao being his only blemish (a loss he just avenged with a first round earlier this year).

Cejudo is coming off a flyweight title defense against a PED-using T.J. Dillashaw, who at the time was the bantamweight title holder before a post-fight test revealed he was using EPO in a fight where Cejudo knocked him out in 32 second.

The fight before that Cejuod took out the greatest fighter in UFC history when he split-decisioned Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight crown.

This will be a tough fight for both competitors, but I’ve got to say, I think I’m leaning Moraes in this one.
Cejudo is a fantastic wrestler, but Moraes is a quick-twitch athlete with good hips and excellent distance management. I think he does a decent enough job keeping the fight standing to do his stuff on the feet.

Since losing to Joseph Benavidez in 2016, Cejudo has adopted more of a karate, wide sideways stance in the stand-up department. It has been quite effective but could prove costly against Moraes.

Moraes will be bringing his axe with him to work and will look to chop down Cejudo’s lead leg. Cejudo stays heavy on this front foot and I wonder if Cejudo will go back to a more traditional boxing/muay thai stance that he adopted earlier in his career.

It’s hard to envision Cejudo getting knocked out because he isn’t reckless and he’s had a GSP-like ability to execute a game plan that accentuates his strengths and mitigates his opponents’, but I like the sheer will of Moraes’ power and ability to keep the fight standing to win out over five-rounds.

I think he tires Cejudo out by denying takedowns and catches him with a knee or head kick while diving for a takedown to get a stoppage victory.

Shevchenko vs. Eye

I’m not going to spend a ton of time here because I don’t really like Jessica Eye’s chances. Shevchenko has the tools necessary to get it done pretty easily.

The one thing I’m curious about is whether Shevchenko can seize a moment in time to become a bigger star in the UFC universe.

Despite a stellar skill set, Shevchenko is often comfortable to play up or down to her opponent’s competition level (unless she’s murdering poor Priscila Cachoeira).

I see Shevchenko outpointing and outclassing Eye through five rounds.

Ferguson vs. Cerrone

How can you not be excited for this fight?

If I’m being honest, this feels like a fight where both fighters are due to lose, which means one is going to get a moment to remember.

Ferguson is on a 12-fight win streak. That simply doesn’t happen, especially without garnering a title fight or championship run somewhere within that long a win streak. It feels like the UFC has tempted fate too long and will finally see this streak snapped without the payoff of Ferguson making it all the way to the promised land after all this build-up.

On the flipside, Cerrone usually gets to a fight like this and it becomes 50/50 if he’ll show up like a killer or a doe waiting to be slaughtered.

I think Cerrone’s skill set matches up nicely against Ferguson’s. Cerrone is technical where Ferguson is wild, he’s very good on the ground so I don’t see Ferguson submitting and I don’t think Ferguson has the skill set to take advantage of the weird body damage Cerrone has as his kryptonite.

Cerrone’s leg kicks often play huge in his win and I see that being the case here. Ferguson is coming off a major knee injury (remember?) and looked wobbly at times back in October when he fought Anthony Pettis.

I think Cerrone finds a way to chop Ferguson down and slow his frantic pace down. Once that happens it’s Cerrone’s fight to lose and I think this time he gets done, setting him up for another big fight…sometime next week.