UFC St. Petersburg: Preview & Prediction

UFC St. Petersburg: Preview & Prediction

By Jon Prentice 

The UFC rolls back into Russia this weekend as St. Petersburg plays host to UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs Oleinik. The main event was originally set to feature Alastair Overeem (44-17-0 1NC) and Alexander Volkov, however, Volkov was forced to withdraw from the bout and was replaced by another Russian in MMA veteran Alexey Oleinik (57-11-1). Between them, the two main event fighters have racked up a staggering 131 professional fights throughout their careers.

Both men come into the clash off the back of victories, with Overeem defeating Sergey Pavlovich at UFC Beijing in November 2018 via first round KO, whilst Oleinik most recently defeated heavy hitter Mark Hunt in the main event of UFC Moscow back in September, forcing the tough New Zealander to tap to a rear naked choke late in round one.

The card is also set to feature an array of tough, exciting Russian fighters, along with a host of UFC debutants looking to make their mark in the premier mixed martial arts promotion.

So here are my thoughts on how the main and co-main event are going to play out, along with my quick picks for the remainder of the main card.

Main event – Alastair Overeem vs Alexey Oleinik (Heavyweight):

From first viewing the main event fight is a classic striker vs grappler contest, with decorated kickboxer Overeem having a far superior advantage on the feet over the submission specialist Oleinik. However, Overeem’s ground game is vastly underrated and he has only been stopped via submission twice in his entire professional career.

‘The Demolition Man’ also has over 15 wins via submission on his record and for his training camp against Pavlovich he enlisted the help of Team Elevation in Denver, Colorado, in particular utilising Curtis Blaydes as his main sparring partner, who is a fantastic wrestler and solid grappler.

With that being said I don’t expect Overeem to test out his grappling defence against a man with 45 submission wins on his record with an unbelievable 9 coming via the rare ezekiel choke. Oleinik will be looking to get this fight to the mat as soon as possible, whether it be by level changing and landing takedowns, catching an Overeem kick, or trips from the clinch, but he is also happy to pull guard and leave himself on the bottom to attempt to work for a submission.

Ultimately I can only see Overeem coming out victorious in this clash. He has a significant advantage on the feet, power in both his hands and kicks, as well as dangerous knees and elbows in the clinch if Oleinik tries to tie up with him. With a good historic TDD percentage of 73% in the UFC, I think he will be able to keep this fight standing and tee off on Oleinik before putting him away with strikes in the second round.

Prediction: Alastair Overeem to win via KO/TKO round 2

Co-main event – Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan (Lightweight):

The co-main event sees the dangerous 27-year-old lightweight prospect Islam Makhachev (16-1) against UFC newcomer and equally entertaining Arman Tsarukyan (13-1).

Dagestani Russian Makhachev is a genuine future title challenger in my opinion. A training partner of current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev played his part in the infamous UFC 229 post fight brawl with Conor McGregor and his team.

Sharing a similar, wrestle heavy style, Makhachev often utilises some of the same tools as Nurmagomedov to get the fight to the ground, along with sharing a smothering top game whilst raining down vicious ground and pound.

Makhachev – who previously failed a USADA drugs but had the ruling overturned – comes into the bout off the back of a four-fight win streak. He most recently submitted the elusive Kajan Johnson via armbar at UFC Calgary in July 2018.

Tsarukyan is a relatively unknown quantity heading into his UFC debut. Armenian born but now fighting out of Russia, Tsarukyan boasts an impressive record of 13 wins to a sole loss, with ten of his wins coming by stoppage. The vast majority of his fights have come on the Russian regional scene, however he has fought for the more well-known Road FC earlier in his career.

A strong striker who often trains a Tiger Muay Thai and MMA in Thailand, Tsarukyan has the ability to cause Makhachev problems on the feet if he is not careful, and he does possess a very fast and very nasty switch head kick that Makhachev will have to be wary off throughout the contest.

Ultimately, I think Makhachev will win this fight. I see him pressuring Tsarukyan to the octagon fence and subsequently utilising his fantastic wrestling to get the fight to the mat. If Tsarukyan can get back to his feet I see the process repeating itself, if he can’t I see Makhachev utilising heavy ground and pound to eventually set up a submission.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev to win via submission in round 2

Rest of the Main Card: 

Sergey Pavlovich vs Marcelo Golm (Heavyweight): Pavlovich to win via KO round 3

Ivan Shtyrkov vs Devin Clark (Light Heavyweight): Shtyrkov to win via decision

Roxanne Modafferi vs Antonina Shevchenko (Flyweight): Shevchenko to win via decision

Krzyzstof Jotko vs Alen Amedovski (Middleweight): Amedovski to win via KO round 1