Cejudo vs Dillashaw Preview & Prediction

Cejudo vs Dillashaw Preview & Prediction

By Alex Conway 

A new era in the world of mixed martial arts is upon as the UFC begins its five-year broadcast deal with ESPN in the United States. The first event is this Saturday and the main event features a flyweight title fight between defending flyweight champ Henry Cejudo and the current bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw.

Dillashaw is attempting to become the fourth fighter in UFC history to wear two belts at one time and the seventh to win a UFC title in two different weight classes.

This week has seen both fighters posing and flexing on social media and the reactions have been…interesting.

There is no doubt that Dillashaw is a professional. I have no doubts that he will make weight. I have no doubt that he believes he is going to perform at a high level despite such a drastic weight class to a weight he’s never made before professionally.

But I do have doubts about this being a set of circumstances that work out in Dillashaw’s favour.

On paper, I believe Dillashaw is the better fighter, although not by a ton. Both Dillashaw and Cejudo come from wrestling backgrounds, but Cejudo is the far more decorated competitor in that realm.

On the feet, Dillashaw would be appear to have a more diverse and creative striking arsenal. He mixes kicks and punches well and his unique movement sets up odd angles that often leave opponents befuddled.

But his striking isn’t perfect. He was caught hitting air a bunch during his fight with Dominick Cruz and defensively he is quite hittable. Maybe Cejudo isn’t the guy that can fully take advantage of the defensive liabilities in Dillashaw’s stand-up, but remember, this is a man who will be physically drained after a demanding weight cut, fighting an opponent used to operating against smaller and faster competitors.

I like Cejudo’s chances to surprise some people on the feet.

Which brings us to the grappling. Cejudo should have an advantage in this department.

The thing I haven’t quite seen from Cejudo is the ability to blend his striking and grappling. A master at doing this is Jon Jones. Jones will throw a strike that allows him to land into a switch stance position and use that movement to enter into a clinch scenario.
Cejudo has been a guy who decides to wrestle, or decides to strike. It’s usually one or the other and he commits to it.

One thing you might hear is that Dillashaw copied Dominick Cruz’s striking style. You hear this because of both fighters tendency to switch stances and move in a herky-jerky, stop and start manner.

But I’ve never found this as an appropriate comparison beyond that because while Cruz is light on his feet, Dillashaw has a tendency to stand still at times and really sit down on his punches looking to generate power. He also does that thing where he places his hand over his head or on his forehead like he’s trying to shield his eyes from the sun.

I believe this would be a great chance for Cejudo to drive for a takedown. Those moments where Dillashaw isn’t in motion and is setting up a quick strike or a combo are where Cejudo has to make Dillashaw work and I believe he will.

You probably see where I’m going with this prediction. I’m taking what a lot of people would call an upset here and picking Cejudo. I like the grappling advantage he should have and I think the fight being at flyweight greatly equals out any skill deficiencies he might have against what I would normally call the more well-rounded fighter in Dillashaw.

I think Cejudo will be faster and I also think he’ll be stronger. His body has been customized for this weight class through many years of cutting down to flyweight whereas Dillashaw is just renting the division for chance at one night of eternal “champ, champ” glory.

There is also the idea that Cejudo is fighting to save the division. I don’t usually put much stock in fighters being extra motivated due to outside influences beyond them being extra ordinarily competitive people to begin with. But this week feels different. It does feel like Cejudo is fighting for something beyond just himself. And that is why my pick is Henry Cejudo to retain the flyweight title and stave off the Dillashaw threat.