UFC on Fox 31 Preview

UFC on Fox 31 Preview

By Alex Conway

The last ever UFC on Fox card takes place this Saturday coming to us from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The event is headlined by a lightweight battle between Kevin Lee and Al Iaquinta. The card as a whole features a lot of lightweight fights including a co-main event tilt between Edson Barboza and Dan Hooker, and a main card opener between Jim Miller and Charles Oliveira.

Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta

These two have fought before, also in Milwaukee, back at UFC 164 in 2013. That fight took place on the prelims while this is a headliner, so the additional two rounds could play a factor. Back then Kevin Lee was an up-and-coming prospect and Iaquinta was able to secure a decision victory. This time around Lee is on the short list of title contenders in the UFC’s most stacked division. Lee has often been the odd-man out in recent discussions in favour of names like Conor McGregor, Tony Ferguson and even featherweight champ Max Holloway for next in line for a crack at lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov.

This fight is a chance for Lee to push his name into that group above, but Iaquinta isn’t a pushover. The Lee that Iaquinta will be fighting this time around isn’t the same one he saw five years ago though. Lee is more polished on his feet, displays better overall cardio and has only gotten better with his MMA wrestling. It’s not that Iaquinta hasn’t also gotten better, but it’s safe to say that Lee has made the larger strides in individual growth between the two fighters.

I think Lee doesn’t mess around too long on the feet against Iaquinta and attempts to replicate the performance Nurmagomedov put on against Iaquinta. Lee might have the second best overall takedown game in the lightweight division next to Nurmagomedov. Iaquinta has a decent submission game, but hasn’t shown a ton off his back in his UFC career, which is where the majority of this fight should take place if Lee does what he’s capable of.

Lee has a dangerous rear-naked choke, so I could see this fight ending via submission with Lee getting his hand raised.

This should be Lee’s fight to lose.

Edson Barboza vs. Dan Hooker

A classic bit of matchmaking where an up-and-comer on a winning streak takes on a division staple on a losing streak.

Unfortunately for Barboza, this isn’t a case where the UFC is throwing him into a fight where they believe he should get an easier win and get back on track. Nope, this time around they are using Barboza as a litmus test for how good the New Zealander Dan Hooker can be.

Hooker has run off four straight victories, all via stoppage and the last two inside the first round. He’s coming off a big win over fellow lightweight prospect Gilbert Burns, but this will be the stiffest test in the area that Hooker most excels, the stand-up game.
There might not be a more dangerous striker at lightweight, certainly not a more powerful kicker, and Hooker will get every chance he needs to prove he’s elite in this one. I lean towards Barboza getting the win here, but I’m not entirely comfortable with the pick.

Right now Hooker is one of those guys that sort of surprises you every time he gets in the cage. He’s a guy that a lot of people had pegged at a certain level, but his move to lightweight has forced people to re-evaluate him. He’s passed every test so far, but the level just jumped a bit here.

If he wins, it’s hard not put him up against the Justin Gaethje’s, Anthony Pettis’s and Donald Cerrone’s of the world next.

Rob Font vs. Sergio Pettis

Both Rob Font and Sergio Pettis are coming off losses in their last fights after almost climbing to the top of their divisions rankings. Font lost to perennial top contender Raphael Assuncao, while Pettis lost to flyweight division topper Jussier Formiga.

It feels like both fighters want to prove that they are worthy of title shot contender ship, and they’ll need to get through each other to get there. Pettis is moving up a weight class from flyweight to bantamweight, but he’s always had good size at flyweight and might be a natural bantamweight anyway.

He’s the more polished striker as evidenced by his fight against Joseph Benavidez where he was able to manage distance well against one of the most veteran fighters in the lighter weight classes. Pettis should find too much trouble in the grappling game against Font, as Font also prefers to keep the fight standing.

I believe Pettis will outpoint Font and get the decision victory.

Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira

No one has more UFC lightweight wins than Jim Miller and nobody in the UFC has more UFC submission victories than Charles Oliveira.

The two fought once in 2010, a Jim Miller submission win during a time where Miller almost secure a UFC title shot. As things stand, Miller’s time at the top appears to have come and gone, but there is still time for Oliveira to make a run towards the top of the UFC lightweight division. Oliveira has become more well-rounded since the pair’s first encounter and Oliveira isn’t quite as reckless going for things as he once was. He’s still aggressive in his pursuit of the finish, but I don’t see him getting counter-knee barred like he did the first time he fought Miller.

I think Oliveira is better in all areas except wrestling, but wrestling by Miller put him in a dangerous spot against Oliveira. I predict Oliveira will eventually find a moment to sink a submission and win this fight via tapout.