Khabib vs McGregor: One True King

Khabib vs McGregor: One True King

Although Tony Ferguson will debate this with must justification, UFC 229 will crown one true king in the UFC lightweight division. Is Khabib Nurmagomedov merely just a pretender who got to UFC lightweight gold because of fighting opponents outside of the elite of the division. Or is Conor McGregor about to pick up where he left off and once again be crowned the UFC lightweight champion.

The failure to punish McGregor for the infamous bus incident literally spat in the face of every UFC fighter on the roster, especially the fighters who were unlucky enough to witness the whole shocking disgraceful episode from inside the bus. The attack went from the most disgusting thing ever, to being part of the story and let’s make a shed load of money from it. McGregor could make $100 million from the fight Dana White said this week, and they say crime doesn’t pay.

But is McGregor about to get a different type of justice from the hands of the unbeaten Nurmagomedov, almost certainly the toughest opponent so far for McGregor.

The critics of Nurmagomedov say he hasn’t fought anyone of note yet, from a rankings point of view Edson Barboza and Al Iaquinta ranked 6th and 9th respectively are the best opponents he has faced. But those critics need to look deeper, sometimes it’s not who you fight it’s how you look, nobody has come close to beating Nurmagomedov. The beating he gave Barboza was frightening, a steady relentless battering that leaves a lasting mark on the recipient. But until he beats a McGregor or a Ferguson, the doubts will remain.

McGregor the best showman MMA has ever seen, the biggest draw the UFC has ever had will try to defy the odds and a near two-year absence from the sport and inflict the first ever defeat on Nurmagomedov. The Irishman, other than Frankie Edgar cleaned out the featherweight division but other than the title win over Eddie Alvarez, as a lightweight he is yet to fully convince he can replicate what he did at the lower weight. While the Alvarez performance was practically punch perfect, flawless even, but Nurmagomedov and Ferguson are completely different animals.

I’m not convinced the punch power is the same at the heavier weight, heavy-handed yes, but the chilling power of his featherweight days, I have doubts, the bigger guys don’t seem to go as easy. In recent fights McGregor’s cardio has been questioned, poor preparation and gambling he would KO Diaz cost him in their first fight. But despite preparing better for the return and trying to conserve energy, he started to fade again around the 8-minute point. You can make excuses about fighting at welterweight, and even when he faded again against Floyd Mayweather you can use the excuse as it being another sport, but there are doubts nonetheless. The last person you want to be facing with a suspect gas tank is Khabib.

I have always thought part of the problem is how he trains, seemingly replacing the long runs with cycling in recent fights, but this week McGregor has said he is back running, and it will be interesting if the stamina improves as a result. But will the two years away harm him, we know he has been training, but to what intensity and does his lifestyle and other obligations get in the way. MMA is fast evolving, and if you become a part-time fighter you get left behind, Ronda Rousey being a prime example. I do worry that through a combination of the time away plus his other commitments we have been robbed of the true prime of McGregor, has the decline already set in.

In John Kavanagh’s excellent autobiography Win or Learn, he wrote about Cathal Pendred, and other interests which were taking his interests away from the gym and therefore spending less time in the gym with the focus less on MMA. With McGregor the pattern is the same, he simply can not be in two places at once,  MMA is now one of many things he does, and it must take something away from his development as a fighter.

However, I do think McGregor is happy to be back and as Kavanagh says the money and the cars are not what makes him tick, he is a fighter at heart. Khabib has pressed buttons others haven’t, for McGregor this is genuinely personal and there is no doubt he will have committed to his training camp with greater intensity and focus. But I do worry that one training camp will wipe away the time he has been absent.

The difference between winning and losing is often decided by the smallest of margins and I just feel when you weigh everything up it comes down heavily in favour of Khabib. The Russian of late has been the more active fighter and the more proven fighter at lightweight. When McGregor was active I always felt Khabib was his worst nightmare.

While the takedown defence of McGregor is much better than people think, but Khabib is on a totally different level to the likes of Chad Mendes or Alvarez. McGregor will also feel the size and more importantly the strength of his opponent.

The odds strongly indicate that McGregor’s best chance of victory lies in the opening round, after that the odds lengthen. Every minute, every second even, the fight lasts the chances of a McGregor win diminishes.

I’m not saying McGregor can’t sleep Khabib, but I’m not convinced he can, I will have to see it to believe it. Despite this probably ending up the biggest fight in UFC history, we might not get the fight to match that tag. I can see who wins it, will be pretty much evident from very early on.

We all know each fighter’s route to victory, McGregor has to keep the distance and control the range. McGregor might only get one chance to land his left hand money shot. Khabib will march forward relentlessly trying to drag his man to the floor. We all know what Khabib does, but so far nobody has been able to stop it.

Khabib will keep coming, and at some point he will get hold of his man, and even if McGregor does get up, any hopes of him reclaiming his crown may well have already evaporated.

It would be foolish to write McGregor off, but everything points to a Khabib win, and it could be a brutal one sided mauling and end up like Amanda Nunes against Rousey ended up, a huge anti-climax after all the build up and anticipation.

I am glad that McGregor is back, he brings something to the game that nobody else can, and I hope he proves me wrong. But Khabib is the wrong opponent, with the wrong style at the wrong time.