Groves vs Smith: Big Fight Preview

Groves vs Smith: Big Fight Preview

This Friday after a lengthy delay and in an unlikely setting we finally get to see who takes home the Ali Trophy and in the process, the winner can quite rightfully claim to be the best super middleweight on the planet.

George Groves looks to again defend his WBA world super-middleweight title in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, while Callum Smith after a seemingly never-ending wait gets his chance to deliver on the hype and claim a world title.

The World Boxing Super Series has been a breath of fresh air for the sport, and despite the delay because of the injury to Groves, we have the final everybody wants and the tournament deserves, anything less would have been anti-climatic.

Groves looked to be one of those fighters who despite being good enough would never win a world title. Losing fights with Badou Jack and the two fights with his arch-rival Carl Froch seem to forever label him the nearly man. But Groves would not be denied, and in a career on the line fight with Fedor Chudinov last May in Sheffield, Groves finally got the job done.

Smith unbeaten in 24 fights finally gets his world title opportunity and while some of his latest fights have left doubt with some, his impressive one round win over Rocky Fielding in 2015 looks a lot better than it did then. I am prepared to give Smith the benefit of the doubt for his latter displays, sometimes a fighter can fight to the level of his opponent, the better the fighter the better the performance. The long wait for this chance and changes of opponent doesn’t help a fighter mentally, you can certainly make a case that Smith wasn’t as switched on for some of his fights as he could have been.

Fighter Quotes Courtesy of the WBSS:

Groves:

“I am number one in the division, proud of it. I am the favourite going into this fight, I was the number one seed when the tournament started. I am going to win, and I am going to win well. We are in a great place.”

Smith:

“I’m excited, there is a lot at stake, win this fight I will have achieved what I always wanted to achieve. I am so close to finally doing it all.”

The Route to the Final:

Groves (28-3) has turned back the domestic challenges of Jamie Cox and Chris Eubank Jr to progress to the final. Smith meanwhile with the perceived easier route has defeated Sweden’s Erik Skoglund in the quarter-final and Dutchman Nieky Holzken in the semi-final.

The form guide seems to suggest Groves as the likely winner, despite the tougher route to the final he has impressed while Smith seems to have lost some of the shine off his hype with performances which haven’t exactly blown people away. The betting odds currently have Groves as the favourite.

The Odds Courtesy of @SkyBet

George Groves 4/6
Draw 22/1
Callum Smith 6/4 

The Prediction:

Without the shoulder injury Groves suffered in the final round of his semi-final against Eubank Jr I would without too much doubt be picking him to beat Smith, but now I do have doubt.

History tells us a shoulder injury is notoriously difficult to overcome for a boxer. Only recently James DeGale clearly came back too soon from his own shoulder surgery and lost his world title to Caleb Truax and despite winning the rematch it still left me unconvinced the problem is fully resolved. The fight with Eubank Jr was only in February, is the shoulder really fully recovered, the answer to that question I don’t think even Groves really knows.

But despite Smith being a better fighter than he has shown in recent fights, there is doubt about him also. Groves is a big step up for him, is he yet ready for someone of the pedigree and talent of Groves. At 30 Groves is by far the more experienced fighter at this level, the losses have made him a better fighter, and I get the feeling Smith might have to go through a similar process before we see the best of him, it just might be too soon for him.

Groves waited for so long and has worked too hard to get the world title and I am prepared to believe that if he wasn’t 100% he wouldn’t be fighting. Sometimes you have to go with the proven fighter, and that is Groves. Smith may well deliver on the promise and box to a level we haven’t yet seen, and if the shoulder isn’t fully healed those 6/4 odds are incredibly attractive.

While it might be overused, but timing is nearly always the key to who wins, and I think Groves at this stage is the more complete fighter. Groves will box from the outside, as he did with Eubank Jr, movement and the jab will be his route to victory. A distance fight looks likely and a points win for Groves looks the safer bet, but 7/2 for a Groves stoppage might be worth a shout, but either way it’s Groves who wins.