Gennady Golovkin vs Saul Alvarez 2 Big Fight Preview

The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday will host the much-anticipated rematch between Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1) and Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (49-1-2). Golovkin will be looking to defend his unified WBA (Super), WBC and IBO middleweight titles against his Mexican rival a year after their first meeting which ended in a split draw (113–115, 114–114, 118–110) scores which meant a rematch was almost guaranteed although it’s happening a little later than originally planned.

There always seems to be some controversy about the rivalry between Golovkin and Alvarez or something which seems to take us away from just focussing on the fight and the fighters skills inside the ring.

The original fight was somewhat overshadowed by the circus that was Mayweather/McGregor. That particular ‘exhibition’ happened just a few weeks prior to the first meeting between Golovkin and Alvarez and certainly took some of the limelight away from the middleweight showdown.

Even after the fight much of the talk was about Adelaide Byrd, who somehow scored the fight 118-110 for Alvarez which was so far away from what occurred in the ring it was laughable, it was an absolute shocker of a card.

Then we had the originally scheduled date for the rematch in May, that fight was cancelled due to Alvarez failing a couple of drug tests for the banned substance clenbuterol. Contaminated meat was given as the reasons for the failed test. Maybe that’s true but surely if you know certain foods carry traces of banned substances and you are likely to be tested then why eat it, but is that too simplistic, and if you didn’t know then you should have known as you are responsible for what you put in your body.

The 6-month ban Alvarez received was nothing more than a token punishment which meant very little and highlighted the problems in the sport. Hopefully in time boxing will get serious about drug testing and punishments that fit the crime and are true deterrents but clearly, we are not yet there, nowhere near. When we should be talking about the magic of the fight its the black magic of the sport that has risen to the surface.

But rightly or wrongly we have the fight and hopefully, now we get the clean and decisive ending that we were denied first time around.

Another little side story was added when the IBF for reasons only they know stripped Golovkin of their version of the world middleweight title in June. Despite the recent seismic resurgence in boxing the old deep-rooted problems in the sport remain still remain.

The 1st fight

The scoring controversy masks what a good fight the first meeting was. While it lacked the ferocity many expected it was nevertheless a thoroughly absorbing fight, that simmered but never quite boiled over. Alvarez started faster and finished stronger while Golovkin controlled for me anyway the rest of the fight.

I had Golovkin winning by at least 115-113, 7 rounds to 5, 116-112 wasn’t that far off the mark on my cards. However, I do accept some of the rounds were a case of what you like and just a little swing in the rounds would have given a draw. I just thought that after his good start Alvarez was struggling to keep with the pace in the middle rounds, and was trying to steal the fight. Golovkin was the one doing a little more and forcing the fight more than Alvarez although the Mexican came on strong in the last few rounds to earn a draw, at least on the judge’s cards.

What’s on the line for both?

While world titles are on the line they seem a side issue in the fight, titles by the way of the seemingly never-ending list of governing bodies and belts don’t really carry the value they once did. This has now become much more personal between the pair, stemming from the controversial draw last September and comments from both sides rising from the failed drug tests, respect last time makes way for hate this time.

A win for Golovkin would leave no doubt that he is one of the greatest middleweight’s ever, it would give him his signature win over the best opponent currently available to him. Golovkin at 36 knows this might be his last chance to cement his legacy, a defeat leaves that question mark.

For Alvarez, the failed drug tests do leave a cloud hanging over him, and after suffering his only loss to Floyd Mayweather back in 2013, you feel he needs the win for redemption in so many ways. Alvarez the younger fighter at 28 will get more big fights going forward and while a loss won’t signal the end of his career, defeats to Mayweather and Golovkin harms his status amongst the all-time great Mexican fighters.

As Oscar de la Hoya quite rightly says “I strongly feel both guys need each other to cement their legacy.”

What have the fighter’s had to say

On a conference call on Tuesday Golovkin said: “I want to punish him, I want to have a fight and punish him for all the bad things that he and his team have done – to size him down and put them in their place.”

Canelo responded to the obvious drug test references “I don’t know which one to laugh about or get angry about at this point but their statements are all excuses for the loss they will take this Saturday.”

Prediction

I have a few golden rules in picking winners in rematches, what genuine excuses if any were there in the first fight and who can improve the most second time around. For this fight I both can and will improve and picking a winner is extremely difficult.

For Alvarez, I think he will be better suited to the weight this time, maybe carrying the additional weight and fighting a heavier opponent played its part in him struggling to stay the distance. I clearly felt he was slowing down in the middle rounds before he found his second wind from round 10 onwards. So I expect a far more aggressive Alvarez this time, despite his protests he must know he very nearly let the fight slip away and he must be worried the judges won’t be so kind this time.

Golovkin will start quicker this time, he almost certainly will have to. But the worry I have is that at 36, will he last the distance well enough with someone like Alvarez, was last time his best chance of beating Alvarez. Golovkin is now a year older and did we see the great champion starting the slide to normality in the fights with Kell Brook, Daniel Jacobs and Alvarez last September, is he now ready to be taken.

I am so tempted to pick Alvarez, but I believe it will be Golovkin who finds a little more this time, enough to swing the fight in his favour. A quicker more aggressive start and an Alvarez who will at least initially will not move around so much will tip the balance Golovkin’s way. As long as age and the miles on the clock haven’t taken away his ability to see the 12 rounds out at the pace he will need, Golovkin will I feel see his hand raised after 12 rounds. It will be close, hard-fought and a much better fight this time.

It won’t be Hagler/Hearns but it will be enough to satisfy, the right man didn’t get the verdict last time, hopefully, in different ways, we see the right man win this time.

The Undercard
Jaime Munguia vs Brandon Cook (WBO junior middleweight title)
David Lemieux vs Spike O’Sullivan (middleweight)
Roman Gonzalez vs Moises Fuentes
Cecilia Braekhus vs Magdziak Lopes