Fight-Pick: Eddie Alvarez v Dustin Poirier

Fight-Pick: Eddie Alvarez v Dustin Poirier

By Andrew Hickey

The Fight: Eddie Alvarez v Dustin Poirier

The title of “The UFC’s most violent man” is on the line this weekend as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier look to put an end to their heated rivalry. They re-run an epic war at UFC 211 that ended in a no contest when a downed Poirier was hit by illegal knees and was deemed unable to continue.

Legitimate title permutations are also involved with both fighters coming off enthralling knockout victories over human highlight reel Justin Gaethje. Alvarez, the former UFC and Bellator lightweight champion, looks to make his way back to the title he lost in devastating fashion at UFC 205.

One of the consensus greatest lightweight fighters of all time, Alvarez has put together an incredible resume across Japan and North America. With victories over UFC, Bellator, Strikeforce, Dream, One and WEC champions, Alvarez is a hall of famer in waiting. Amazingly, he enters the octagon a betting underdog for the eight time in a row in his UFC tenure. A familiar position for a fighters who career has been a success threw pure heart and determination. In Calgary, he will look to upset the odds one more time.

Dustin Poirier entered the UFC at the tender age of 21. Nearly 8 years later, he sits on the cusp of a title shot for the second time in his career. A 2012 loss to Chan Sung Jung saw a shot at featherweight great Jose Aldo slip agonisingly threw his grasp. A lob sided end to his rivalry with Conor Mcgregor signaled the end of his FW run with the decision taken to move up to lightweight. A decision that has since been wholly justified.

Going 7-1 in his last 8 bouts, he has made his way to the upper echelon of the rankings. Blessed with a talent for producing explosive battles, he has began to show his technical side in recent outings. A heralded victory over former champion Anthony Pettis showed the enormous improvements the 29-year-old Louisiana native has made. Main eventing for the third time in a row, the eyes of the MMA world watch closely as Poirier looks to make his case for a shot at the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The Gameplan

Their first fight was one of the best bouts of 2017. Poirier’s kicking game was showcased and was successful in disrupting the rhythm of the underground king. He picked Alvarez apart on the feet. His range advantage and excellent timing made it extremely difficult for Alvarez to get inside the pocket and connect with any meaningful shots.

Eddie planted his feet and began “throwing heat” as Daniel Cormier described it but was often countered by the precise straight left of Poirier. It was this left that would set up the end of the fight. With Alvarez hurt against the fence, Poirier dropped his hands and went for the finish. Huge mistake on the part of the diamond. A far better technical fighter than a brawler, his losses come when ego takes over and he engages in this type of gunfight.

In the end it was Alvarez pouring the pressure on Poirier despite being out struck convincingly for the majority of the bout. Both fighters will have learned a huge amount from the encounter. Alvarez most likely knows that his striking game won’t hold up against Poirier. Does he revert to the grinding wrestling style that he used so efficiently at the start of his UFC run? It seems the most efficient path to victory. On the other hand, Poirier will know that he has to remain calculated and cold-blooded for the entirety of the fight. His route to victory lies in his use of range and technical striking. While the fans may want both fighters to pick up where they left off at UFC 211, the reality is that both fighters best chance of victory lies in a far more concentrated game plan.

The Prediction

The younger, fresher Poirier has a statistical advantage in most relevant areas in the fight. More efficient at landing strikes, a 3 inch range advantage and stellar TDD at 93%. Alvarez has taken far more damage over his storied career and at 34 is very much at the end of his run a top the mountain at 155. Poirier to remain calm and give a repeat striking performance will leave Alvarez with no answer. The reward for victory may not be a title shot due to the imminent return of the Notorious One but it will certainly confirm Poirier’s arrival at the elite level.

Dustin Poirier via TKO in round 3